“This planetary boundaries framework finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.”
I would posit that we have been 'outside of the safe operating space' all of this century!
We have been led to believe that there is ‘only’ a 10-to-20-year lag between emissions and their full impacts being felt. That’s true for most emissions but large pulses, like massive forest fires can take centuries to work their way through the climate system. Not only is the CO2 released back into the atmosphere in a classic feedback loop, but the carbon sinks that these forests represented are gone, forever.
"Our results suggest that as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the full warming effect of an emission may not be felt for several decades, if not centuries."
I feel it's important to reiterate the lag between emissions and their full effects manifesting.
When considering the lag effect, the consequences of this century's emissions have yet to manifest but they are 'baked in'
I've added this latest analysis to my blog post titled “Current Climate Path Will Lead to Collapse of Life on Earth”
I didn't write that title; it comes from an article published by the Independent, not known for overstating the risk, quite the opposite!
I'll drop that article below for added reference material:
ONLY six of nine boundaries transgressed. ONLY a 10-to-20-year lag between emissions and their full impacts being felt.
There's a lot of ONLY out there, and most of it is incorrect or inadequate. When I order water at a restaurant, the server invariably says “only water?” I point out that water is the stuff of life.
Thank you for your informed comment, and for adding to my work and sharing it. I greatly appreciate your ongoing collegiality, Kevin.
"After all, the vast majority of people on this crowded planet prefer wishful thinking to reality. In addition, the masses don’t have the slightest idea what science is or does."
I expect that to get worse over the next 4 years.
"Actively rabid deniers of anthropogenic climate change remind me of the man grabbing his rifle, intent upon fixing a problem that didn’t exist." See sentence above, the one about wishful thinking versus reality. Again, expecting this to get worse over the next 4 years.
"“If Earth’s stability was run like a machine, you’d be surprised it was still running.” Yes, I would. Yes, I am surprised." Yeah, me too. But the planet will take care of itself, and will change as conditions change, into a new type of planet -- one that humans and many other current living things can't inhabit, but some form of living things will survive. Mother Earth is one smart lady. (I know, lots of anthropomorphism there...)
Thanks, Guy, for all of your efforts, which should earn you an honorary nod from the Cassandra Society (I just made that up, but it has a nice ring?). I have spent many years of my medical career and retirement writing about the the role of population density stress in generating and exacerbating "stress diseases", including Stanford kindly granting access to my free e-book PDF, "Stress R Us". Global heating is just one arm of the octopus strangling us and all life on our finite planet: too many humans using too many natural resources and producing too much pollution, including CO2 and waste heat, the equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima yield nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND, where each releases 63 trillion BTUs into the environment. As for your spirited defense of "hypothesis", there are far worse windmills to til at, so charge ahead and more power to you! Gregg
“This planetary boundaries framework finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.”
I would posit that we have been 'outside of the safe operating space' all of this century!
We have been led to believe that there is ‘only’ a 10-to-20-year lag between emissions and their full impacts being felt. That’s true for most emissions but large pulses, like massive forest fires can take centuries to work their way through the climate system. Not only is the CO2 released back into the atmosphere in a classic feedback loop, but the carbon sinks that these forests represented are gone, forever.
"Our results suggest that as CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the full warming effect of an emission may not be felt for several decades, if not centuries."
I feel it's important to reiterate the lag between emissions and their full effects manifesting.
When considering the lag effect, the consequences of this century's emissions have yet to manifest but they are 'baked in'
I've added this latest analysis to my blog post titled “Current Climate Path Will Lead to Collapse of Life on Earth”
I didn't write that title; it comes from an article published by the Independent, not known for overstating the risk, quite the opposite!
I'll drop that article below for added reference material:
https://kevinhester.live/2023/06/05/current-climate-path-will-lead-to-collapse-of-life-on-earth/
ONLY six of nine boundaries transgressed. ONLY a 10-to-20-year lag between emissions and their full impacts being felt.
There's a lot of ONLY out there, and most of it is incorrect or inadequate. When I order water at a restaurant, the server invariably says “only water?” I point out that water is the stuff of life.
Thank you for your informed comment, and for adding to my work and sharing it. I greatly appreciate your ongoing collegiality, Kevin.
Thank you, Guy. Your work is one of my key resources. I agree with it. Others, like Andrew Glikson complement yours.
Thank YOU, Bernie. Yours is a rare compliment.
A few standout sentences for me:
"After all, the vast majority of people on this crowded planet prefer wishful thinking to reality. In addition, the masses don’t have the slightest idea what science is or does."
I expect that to get worse over the next 4 years.
"Actively rabid deniers of anthropogenic climate change remind me of the man grabbing his rifle, intent upon fixing a problem that didn’t exist." See sentence above, the one about wishful thinking versus reality. Again, expecting this to get worse over the next 4 years.
"“If Earth’s stability was run like a machine, you’d be surprised it was still running.” Yes, I would. Yes, I am surprised." Yeah, me too. But the planet will take care of itself, and will change as conditions change, into a new type of planet -- one that humans and many other current living things can't inhabit, but some form of living things will survive. Mother Earth is one smart lady. (I know, lots of anthropomorphism there...)
Thank you, Guy.
Thank you for your informed comment, Mez. Here’s wishing the peer-reviewed literature is incorrect, and life will carry on.
Thanks, Guy, for all of your efforts, which should earn you an honorary nod from the Cassandra Society (I just made that up, but it has a nice ring?). I have spent many years of my medical career and retirement writing about the the role of population density stress in generating and exacerbating "stress diseases", including Stanford kindly granting access to my free e-book PDF, "Stress R Us". Global heating is just one arm of the octopus strangling us and all life on our finite planet: too many humans using too many natural resources and producing too much pollution, including CO2 and waste heat, the equivalent of 20+ Hiroshima yield nuclear bomb blasts PER SECOND, where each releases 63 trillion BTUs into the environment. As for your spirited defense of "hypothesis", there are far worse windmills to til at, so charge ahead and more power to you! Gregg
“Global heating is just one arm of the octopus strangling us …”
It certainly is. Every night as I struggle to sleep, I think of others. No wonder I struggle to sleep!