Science Snippets: The Reality of Abrupt, Irreversible Climate Change

Draft script:

As I have reported frequently in this space, even the designed-to-fail Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that Earth is amid the most abrupt in planetary history and also that climate change is irreversible. That I receive daily email message indicating the contrary is ludicrous, albeit not surprising. After all, the vast majority of people on this crowded planet prefer wishful thinking to reality. In addition, the masses don’t have the slightest idea what science is or does.

In April of 2001, I had a peer-reviewed paper published in The American Biology Teacher. Titled Teaching & Learning the Scientific Method, the paper expressed my surprise and discontent about academicians who fail to understand rudimentary facts and concepts about science.

The initial paragraph of this peer-reviewed paper includes this information: “Scientists and science educators express concern about science literacy frequently. Better understanding of the scientific method is a common component of pleas for increased literacy. However, I believe that lack of understanding of the scientific method is more rampant than is commonly believed, at least in part because many scientists and science educators do not understand all the components of the scientific method. Specifically, misuse of the term ‘hypothesis’ obfuscates genuine understanding of the scientific method. We routinely use the term ‘hypothesis’ when we mean ‘prediction.’ This unacceptable substitution dilutes the power of the scientific method to the extent that invoking the ‘scientific method’ has become largely meaningless.”

As you can imagine, the situation has not improved during the last 23 years. A recent example came from the local High School, where I occasionally serve as substitute teacher. I politely and humorously provided a copy of my peer-reviewed paper to two of the regular teachers who often make this common error. I received no response from either teacher. However, I was told by a friend on the faculty that one teacher continues to use his incorrect example because it’s familiar to him. He has not changed his content not because it’s incorrect, as he might know. Rather, he will not change the material he teaches because it would cause him discomfort due to its unfamiliarity. Humans are notorious for choosing the familiar, even if it does not serve them.

Perhaps you are familiar with a line from American author and life coach Tony Robbins: “All growth starts at the end of your comfort zone.” I’m not suggesting Robbins is correct merely because we share an unusual birthday, to the day. However, I agree that personal growth and education are enhanced when we are uncomfortable. In fact, I suspect we can never learn something meaningful unless what we are learning makes us uncomfortable.

Think about it. How many times have you experienced discomfort as you were learning something new? I suspect that, like me, you learn simple facts without discomfort. On the other hand, when new information challenges my existing knowledge, I tend to push back. I remember a progressive family member who never expressed racism or misogyny until his daughter began dating a person of color. The father grabbed his rifle and was headed out the door to make the 11-hour drive when his wife pointed out that this probably wasn’t the best approach.

Actively rabid deniers of anthropogenic climate change remind me of the man grabbing his rifle, intent upon fixing a problem that didn’t exist. An Explainer was published on 30 September 2024 to accompany a peer-reviewed paper. The Explainer is titled Climate change is redrawing regional weather and climate patterns and risks. The Explainer is designed to inform the general public about scientific information. It opens with these two paragraphs: “The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly clear: more severe storms, changes to rainfall, prolonged and more extreme heatwaves, and rising sea levels to name a few. While the effects of a warming climate are felt globally, accurate information about regional impacts is critical to help communities prepare for the specific climate hazards they face.” The Explainer goes on to summarize the peer-reviewed article’s main points. As good as it is, I doubt it will convince some people that Earth is in a serious situation with respect to anthropogenic climate change. If the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cannot accomplish that task more than five years after publishing reports about abrupt, irreversible climate change, then I doubt the Explainer or the peer-reviewed paper will do the trick.

I now turn to the peer-reviewed paper, written by 31 scholars and published 30 September 2024. Described as a lead article as part of an article hub, the paper published in Frontiers in Science is titled Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world. The Abstract begins with this line: “The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact.”

·       A Key points section highlights the peer-reviewed paper’s five critical pieces of information: (1) “Monsoons are expected to increase in intensity in the future, as aerosol emissions abate and greenhouse gas forcing emerges, increasing the risks of floods, landslides, and reduced agricultural yields in affected regions. (2) Very high-resolution climate models have recently highlighted a potential strengthening of the storm track into northwestern Europe, risking an increase in land-falling extreme storms likely to cause high winds, flooding, and threats to infrastructure. (3) An increasing fraction of precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow over both poles in the future, potentially destabilizing melting ice and amplifying sea level rise. (4) El Niño Southern Oscillation … events, which cause floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires around the world, are expected to increase in frequency and severity in as little as 20 years. (5) Temperature extremes are increasing globally: impactful events often combine high heat and humidity, thereby significantly affecting sectors such as agriculture—negatively impacting crop yields, reducing the ability to work outdoors, and increasing mortality in vulnerable populations.”

This all sounds terrible. Floods, landslides, extreme storms, high winds, flooding, threats to infrastructure, melting ice, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires are already contributing to loss of habitat for organisms throughout the world. These phenomena are all expected to increase as the world warms. In doing so, they will negatively impact yields, reduce the ability to work outdoors, and increase mortality in vulnerable populations.

Bear in mind that, according to IFL Science on 24 September 2024, Six of Nine Earth Planetary Health Boundaries Have Been Broken – And There’s More to Come. The article in IFL Science presents a haunting subhead: “If Earth’s stability was run like a machine, you’d be surprised it was still running.” Yes, I would. Yes, I am surprised.

Here’s the lede: “Six out of nine key planetary boundaries have been broken, while a seventh is set to be imminently breached, according to a ‘first-of-its-kind’ planetary health check report.” Three paragraphs later, we are informed that a seventh boundary, ocean acidification, “is currently within the safe zone but is set to be breached in a few years.” Never mind that “Acidification is proceeding at a pace unparalleled during the last 300 million years, according to research published in the 2 March 2012 issue of Science.” As is often the case, the information I reported more than a dozen years ago negates the information reported in late September of this year. Ocean acidification is already a serious problem.

The article in IFL Science was published in the renowned peer-reviewed journal, Science on 13 September 2024. Written by 29 scholars, the paper is titled Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries. The Abstract begins with this sentence: “This planetary boundaries framework finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.”

It’s almost as if the paper in Science is sounding an alarm. It’s almost as if there is serious danger associated with “Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.” It’s almost as if Earth is amid abrupt, irreversible climate change. This is not good news.