The arrival of killer whales in the Arctic is more than just an interesting ecological shift — it has the potential to disrupt an already fragile marine ecosystem. These apex predators are now able to hunt Arctic whales like belugas, narwhals, and bowhead whales, which were previously protected by sea ice. "The arctic whales are just chubby, slow, and delicious," said evolutionary geneticist Colin Garroway, underscoring how vulnerable these prey species are to orcas, per Mongabay. While there are still hundreds of thousands of Arctic whales compared to a few hundred killer whales, the long-term impacts of this shift remain uncertain. Beyond the ecological consequences, this change is also a concern for Indigenous communities who rely on Arctic whales for food, culture, and economy. The continued presence of killer whales could impact sustainable hunting traditions that have existed for generations. Historically, thick ice sheets blocked the whales from venturing into these frigid waters, but as rising temperatures melt the ice, new pathways have opened up.
The latest Arctic News post - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/heat-flux-forecast-to-enter-arctic-early-february-2025.html - “A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that could raise temperatures to levels more than 30°C higher than 1979-2000. ... A huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic at its surface, and it is moving toward the Arctic due to prevailing wind and ocean currents. ... The temperature is forecast to reach 0.2°C (32.4 F) at the North Pole on February 2, 2025 14:00 UTC.” The National Snow and Ice Data Center (at CU Boulder) is showing the least amount of ice for today’s date on the Arctic Ocean. - https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today.
I liked this article right up to the end Guy. The last paragraph lost me.
"As I have indicated frequently in this space, a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control."
"The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth."
Really?
ALL life on Earth?
Including slimes, molds, bacteria, fungi, and lichens?
What's happening right now is the 6th Mass Extinction Event in our planets history. There is NO DOUBT about that now. And you are right, the Arctic BOE is an accelerating feedback that will act as a "trillion ton" (more or less) climate forcing equal to a jump of about +85ppm(CO2e).
There is NO DOUBT that will cause an acceleration in the Rate of Warming. +3°C by 2050 is moving from "possible" to "probable" now.
In terms of ENERGY, starting from the 50's, we had forced about 12.5 Billion HIROs worth of HEAT into the oceans around 2021. In the last 2 years that number has increased by about another +1 Billion HIROs.
If this keeps up, and a BOE before 2035 means it certainly will. Then we will reach +20 Billion HIROs before 2040.
The Chicxulub Impact Event is estimated to have released 10 Billion HIROs into the Climate System in a SINGLE DAY. We will have forced the equivalent of TWO DINO KILLER asteroids into the oceans by 2040.
There is "no doubt" that a Mass Extinction Event is unfolding right now.
BUT.
Within 10,000 years after the impact event fossils show that a jungle had regrown over the crater site. Every animal over about 20lbs went extinct but the plants and insects "bounced back" pretty fast that time. That will probably be true this time as well.
Also, the PETM period, the hottest on earth in 55my, was a fairly mild extinction event. The Arctic Ocean was ice free, year-round, palm trees grew around it, and alligators lived on it's shores. Alligators have already been spotted as far north as North Carolina.
We agree on almost every point but people have to stop saying that this is "game over" and "all life is going to die". Any paleontologist will laugh at that because it's simply not true. It makes you sound, sadly, like a "doomer" of the worst sort. The kind that people tune out.
This is going to be bad enough. More people NEED to understand what's happening and WHY. This was a good article on the impending BOE and the effect it's going to have. I thought the last paragraph weakened your message.
This is at least the ninth Mass Extinction Event. This one is proceeding more rapidly than any other. According to peer-reviewed, open-access literature, it will cause the extinction of all life on Earth: https://guymcpherson.com/explained-strona-and-bradshaw-2018/
This latest analysis on the demise of the cryosphere addresses the peer reviewed papers Guy and I relied on indicating that we could have had a "Blue Ocean Event" in the Arctic already. I note that the Antarctic is also in a state of accelerated flux. Fortunately, those papers turned out to be incorrect, but the trajectory hasn't changed. The cliff we've careened off is above and behind us!
“Losing the remaining Arctic Sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Guy and I have been harangued because peer reviewed papers we quoted didn't fully eventuate. We follow the "Precautionary Principle". As a sailor I live by it.
Hey Guy, thanks for continuing to keep us all informed. I must say, with stressful news nowadays from politics to climate change to economic worries...on top of my own personal health issue (on the mend, thankfully)...it is a bit overwhelming. But yes, it's important to stay informed, so thank you so much for doing that for us, I appreciate all you do.
Orcas in the Arctic:
The arrival of killer whales in the Arctic is more than just an interesting ecological shift — it has the potential to disrupt an already fragile marine ecosystem. These apex predators are now able to hunt Arctic whales like belugas, narwhals, and bowhead whales, which were previously protected by sea ice. "The arctic whales are just chubby, slow, and delicious," said evolutionary geneticist Colin Garroway, underscoring how vulnerable these prey species are to orcas, per Mongabay. While there are still hundreds of thousands of Arctic whales compared to a few hundred killer whales, the long-term impacts of this shift remain uncertain. Beyond the ecological consequences, this change is also a concern for Indigenous communities who rely on Arctic whales for food, culture, and economy. The continued presence of killer whales could impact sustainable hunting traditions that have existed for generations. Historically, thick ice sheets blocked the whales from venturing into these frigid waters, but as rising temperatures melt the ice, new pathways have opened up.
https://www.thecooldown.com/outdoors/killer-whales-arctic-population-orcas/
Thank you for this informative comment, Red_Dog. The “potential to disrupt an already fragile ecosystem” is a cause for significant concern.
The latest Arctic News post - https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/heat-flux-forecast-to-enter-arctic-early-february-2025.html - “A heat flux is forecast to enter the Arctic early February 2025 that could raise temperatures to levels more than 30°C higher than 1979-2000. ... A huge amount of heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic at its surface, and it is moving toward the Arctic due to prevailing wind and ocean currents. ... The temperature is forecast to reach 0.2°C (32.4 F) at the North Pole on February 2, 2025 14:00 UTC.” The National Snow and Ice Data Center (at CU Boulder) is showing the least amount of ice for today’s date on the Arctic Ocean. - https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today.
Thank you for sharing, Red_Dog.
I liked this article right up to the end Guy. The last paragraph lost me.
"As I have indicated frequently in this space, a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control."
"The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth."
Really?
ALL life on Earth?
Including slimes, molds, bacteria, fungi, and lichens?
What's happening right now is the 6th Mass Extinction Event in our planets history. There is NO DOUBT about that now. And you are right, the Arctic BOE is an accelerating feedback that will act as a "trillion ton" (more or less) climate forcing equal to a jump of about +85ppm(CO2e).
There is NO DOUBT that will cause an acceleration in the Rate of Warming. +3°C by 2050 is moving from "possible" to "probable" now.
In terms of ENERGY, starting from the 50's, we had forced about 12.5 Billion HIROs worth of HEAT into the oceans around 2021. In the last 2 years that number has increased by about another +1 Billion HIROs.
If this keeps up, and a BOE before 2035 means it certainly will. Then we will reach +20 Billion HIROs before 2040.
The Chicxulub Impact Event is estimated to have released 10 Billion HIROs into the Climate System in a SINGLE DAY. We will have forced the equivalent of TWO DINO KILLER asteroids into the oceans by 2040.
There is "no doubt" that a Mass Extinction Event is unfolding right now.
BUT.
Within 10,000 years after the impact event fossils show that a jungle had regrown over the crater site. Every animal over about 20lbs went extinct but the plants and insects "bounced back" pretty fast that time. That will probably be true this time as well.
Also, the PETM period, the hottest on earth in 55my, was a fairly mild extinction event. The Arctic Ocean was ice free, year-round, palm trees grew around it, and alligators lived on it's shores. Alligators have already been spotted as far north as North Carolina.
We agree on almost every point but people have to stop saying that this is "game over" and "all life is going to die". Any paleontologist will laugh at that because it's simply not true. It makes you sound, sadly, like a "doomer" of the worst sort. The kind that people tune out.
This is going to be bad enough. More people NEED to understand what's happening and WHY. This was a good article on the impending BOE and the effect it's going to have. I thought the last paragraph weakened your message.
This is at least the ninth Mass Extinction Event. This one is proceeding more rapidly than any other. According to peer-reviewed, open-access literature, it will cause the extinction of all life on Earth: https://guymcpherson.com/explained-strona-and-bradshaw-2018/
https://guymcpherson.com/science-snippets-on-the-rate-of-environmental-change/
This latest analysis on the demise of the cryosphere addresses the peer reviewed papers Guy and I relied on indicating that we could have had a "Blue Ocean Event" in the Arctic already. I note that the Antarctic is also in a state of accelerated flux. Fortunately, those papers turned out to be incorrect, but the trajectory hasn't changed. The cliff we've careened off is above and behind us!
“Losing the remaining Arctic Sea ice and its ability to reflect incoming solar energy back to space would be equivalent to adding one trillion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, on top of the 2.4 trillion tons emitted since the Industrial Age, according to current and former researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.”
“At current rates, this roughly equates to 25 years of global CO2 emissions.”
Guy and I have been harangued because peer reviewed papers we quoted didn't fully eventuate. We follow the "Precautionary Principle". As a sailor I live by it.
https://kevinhester.live/2019/08/27/cascading-consequences-of-the-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice/
Sam Carana has added Guy's analysis to this update of the latest Arctic Sea Ice decline.
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/01/why-downplay-the-need-for-action.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawH8FLBleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHa_XVKTQ9Xyet4rQaPzljbVkfAdBFRBmARGiIFU1oj55CJpxDROAd6T5Vw_aem_5pQJ8fospVNX_8hVYCn8Iw
Thank you, Kevin
Thank you for your superb comment, Kevin. Your life on the seas provides excellent perspective for how we live.
Hey Guy, thanks for continuing to keep us all informed. I must say, with stressful news nowadays from politics to climate change to economic worries...on top of my own personal health issue (on the mend, thankfully)...it is a bit overwhelming. But yes, it's important to stay informed, so thank you so much for doing that for us, I appreciate all you do.