Science Snippets: Consequences of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean

Draft script:

I have been warning about an ice-free Arctic Ocean for many years. Two renowned Professors, one each at Harvard University and the University of California-San Diego, predicted such an event would have already occurred by now. The primary consequence of such an event would include the fastest rate of environmental change in planetary history, therefore leading to our extinction. As I have reported frequently in this space, as humans go, so goes life on Earth.

An article at Phys.Org continued the warnings about an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Published 3 December 2024, it is titled Countdown to an ice-free Arctic: Research warns of accelerated timelines. Here’s the lede: “The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic’s sea ice, an ominous milestone for the planet, could occur as early as 2027.”

What, what? “[A]s early as 2027” is much more distant than we have been led to believe. Don’t get me wrong: I’m a huge fan of delaying an ice-free Arctic Ocean as long as possible, because I’m a fan of life on Earth. However, based on predictions from intelligent, informed researchers, I suspect we could witness an ice-free Arctic Ocean in 2025 or 2026. This latest research indicating that the first ice-free Arctic Ocean since civilizations arose on Earth will not occur until at least 2027 or later is surprisingly good news.

Two scholars conducted the relevant research and wrote the resulting peer-reviewed paper. According to the article at Phys.Org, the researchers “found that most models predicted that the first ice-free day could happen within nine to 20 years after 2023, regardless of how humans alter their greenhouse gas emissions. The earliest ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur within three years.”

The article at Phys.Org indicates that the requisite “warm years have already happened. For example, in March 2022, areas of the Arctic were 50°F warmer than average, and areas around the North Pole were already melting. With climate change, the frequency and intensity of these weather events will only increase.” 50°F warmer than average translates to about 28°C warmer than average. That’s a lot.

The article at Phys.Org includes a good description of the importance of Arctic sea ice: “Sea ice protects the Arctic from warming by reflecting incoming sunlight back into space. With less reflective ice, darker ocean waters will absorb more heat from the sun, further increasing temperatures in the Arctic and globally. In addition, warming in the Arctic could change wind and ocean current patterns, leading to more extreme weather events around the world.”

The article at Phys.Org closes with two paragraphs contrary to its earlier message. After the researchers “found that most models predicted that the first ice-free day could happen within nine to 20 years after 2023, regardless of how humans alter their greenhouse gas emissions,” the article returns to the message we’ve heard thousands of times. Specifically, after stating “that the first ice-free day could happen within nine to 20 years after 2023, regardless of how humans alter their greenhouse gas emissions, we are informed that “there’s also good news: A drastic cut in emissions could delay the timeline for an ice-free Arctic and reduce the time the ocean stays ice-free, according to the study.” In fact, one of the two authors is quoted in the article’s bottom line: “Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice.”

I’ll turn now to the peer-reviewed, open-access paper. Published 3 December 2024, it is titled The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030. It was published in Nature Communications. I will read directly from the Abstract: “Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3–6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.”

Not surprisingly, the Introduction quotes abundant additional peer-reviewed literature in pointing out that the consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean will be severe: “The observed decline of the Arctic sea ice cover is expected to continue in the future. The potential of an ice-free Arctic Ocean is one of the most striking examples of the ongoing anthropogenic climate change, with a visible transition from a white Arctic Ocean to a predominantly blue Arctic Ocean during the summer. While the first occurrence of ice-free conditions has primarily symbolic significance, a transition to an Arctic Ocean that regularly has a sea ice area of less than 1 million km² … in the summer is expected to have cascading effects on the rest of the climate system: It would notably enhance the warming of the upper ocean, accelerating sea ice loss year round and therefore further accelerating climate change, and could also induce more extreme events at mid-latitudes. A further reduction of the summer sea ice cover will also negatively impact the already-stressed Arctic ecosystem, from the emblematic polar bear to the crucial zooplankton.”

The Discussion of the peer-reviewed, open-access paper indicates that “[t]he first time the Arctic reaches ice-free conditions will be an event with a high symbolic significance, as it will visually demonstrate the ability of humans to change one of the defining features of the Arctic Ocean through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions - the transition from a white Arctic Ocean to a blue Arctic Ocean. So far, all multi-model predictions have focused on predicting the first ice-free conditions in the monthly mean values. But the first time we will observe ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean will be in the daily satellite data, not in a monthly mean product. Thus, to set realistic expectations as to when we could first observe ice-free conditions in the Arctic, we here used daily data from CMIP6 models to provide the first multi-model predictions of the first ice-free day.

We showed that the earliest ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur within 3 years from 2023.”

As I have indicated frequently in this space, a near-term, ice-free Arctic Ocean—the so-called Blue Ocean Event—is the extinction-causing event over which we have the least control. The rate of environmental change in the wake of such an event will suffice to cause the extinction of all life on Earth. I’m not a fan.