Science Snippets: The REAL "New Normal"

Draft script:

As you undoubtedly know, Earth is amid abrupt, irreversible climate change. As a result of anthropogenic climate change, Earth is experiencing the most rapid change in planetary history. This change is irreversible. This abrupt, irreversible change was published in two reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an organization designed-to-fail when it was created during the Ronald Reagan administration.

As I have mentioned recently in this space, the situation is getting worse. Ongoing, accelerating anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause the extinction of all life on Earth, as reported in the peer-reviewed literature. As usual, today’s information is worse than the information I have presented before.

An article in EurekAlert! was published 5 June 2025. Titled Multiple extreme events at the same time may be the new normal, the article is a publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, which publishes the renowned peer-reviewed journal, Science. Here’s the lede of the article at EurekAlert!, followed by another sentence that completes the first paragraph: “Heatwaves, droughts and forest fires are some of the extreme climate-related events that are expected not only to become more frequent but also to increasingly strike at the same time. This finding emerges from a new study led by Uppsala University, in which researchers have mapped the impact of climate change in different regions of the world.”

The article continues with an overview of the results presented in the peer-reviewed paper: “In a new study published in the journal Earth’s Future, researchers from Uppsala University and Belgian, French and German universities have shown that in the near future several regions of the world will no longer just be affected by isolated climate-related events. Instead, several different events will occur concurrently or in quick succession.”

The first author of the peer-reviewed paper is then quoted: “We have long known, for example, that there will be more heatwaves, forest fires and severe droughts in many regions – that in itself is no surprise. What surprised us is that the increase is so large that we see a clear paradigm shift with multiple coinciding extreme events becoming the new normal.”

“[T]he increase is so large that we see a clear paradigm shift with multiple coinciding extreme events becoming the new normal.” For those of us interested in retaining life on this planet, a paradigm shift of this magnitude doesn’t sound good.

The article at EurekAlert! continues: “Using models to predict the future climate – temperature, rainfall, wind and so on – is a common method in climate research. In this study, the researchers have gone a step further by feeding that data into additional models that deliver information on the concrete impact on society. By calculating the effect of climate change on, say, the risk of forest fires or floods, a clearer picture emerges of how different regions of the world might actually be affected. ... The researchers looked specifically at six types of events: floods, droughts, heatwaves, forest fires, tropical cyclone winds and crop failures.”

Beneath a section titled “Heatwaves and forest fires a recurrent feature,” we find this information: “The study shows that combinations of heat waves and forest fires will increase sharply in almost all regions of the world, except where there is no vegetation, as in the Sahara. Heatwaves and droughts will become a recurrent feature in areas such as the Mediterranean region and Latin America. Areas that now generally experience isolated events, such as the Nordic countries, will also be more frequently affected by heatwaves and forest fires in combination.”

The article in EurekAlert! concludes with a subsection titled “Poses new challenges for preparedness”: “The researchers’ analysis covers several possible emission scenarios. However, the main focus is on a medium scenario, which is considered realistic given current emission trends.”

The first author of the peer-reviewed paper is then quoted: “It is important to emphasise that this shift that we see does not only occur if we look at the most extreme case, where we do nothing to reduce our emissions, but also if we consider a less pessimistic scenario. From a societal perspective, we need to broaden our preparedness to deal with these co-occurring extreme events. We are going to face a new climate reality that we have limited experience of today.”

I now turn to the peer-reviewed, open-access paper in Earth’s Future. Created by six scholars, it is titled Global Mapping of Concurrent Hazards and Impacts Associated With Climate Extremes Under Climate Change. Published on 4 June 2025, the Abstract opens with a brutally honest line: “Climate-related extreme events impose a heavy toll on humankind, and many will likely become more frequent in the future.”

The Abstract concludes with two horrifying sentences: “many locations … [will experience] specific compound occurrences at least once a year for several years, or even decades, in a row. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm.”

The Abstract is followed by three Key Points:

1. “Under a medium-high emission scenario, compound hazard or impact occurrences will become the norm in many regions.”

2. “Under such scenario, many regions will experience specific compound occurrences for several years, or even decades, in a row.”

3. “In the absence of global climate mitigation, we project a regime shift to a world dominated by compound hazards or impacts.”

The peer-reviewed paper then includes a Plain Language Summary:

“Climate-related extreme events often result in large and negative societal impacts, and many such events are likely to become more frequent in the future. The joint occurrence of different climate-related extreme events can lead to even larger impacts than those of extremes occurring in isolation. In the absence of effective global climate mitigation to minimize the ongoing climatic change, we find that many regions worldwide transition from chiefly experiencing extreme events in isolation to routinely experiencing the joint occurrence of different climate-related extreme events. Such joint occurrences may repeatedly affect the same region for several years, or even decades, in a row.”

Many scientists have ignored the IPCC’s conclusions regarding abrupt, irreversible climate change. The trend continues with this peer-reviewed paper. Even with no mention of the IPCC’s dire conclusions, this peer-reviewed paper and the article introducing it still manage to paint a horrifying undesirable picture regarding our future.