Draft script: The title of an undated paper at United Press International: Much of North America may face electricity shortages starting in 2024Nature Bats Last Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
"More than 650,000 homes, business and other utility customers remained without power Friday evening in Texas, according to PowerOutage.us. Nearly all of those were in Harris County, where Houston is located."
"A look at the great transformer shortage affecting U.S. utilities
An NREL team finds that lead times for transformers has grown fourfold in three years, with orders sometimes taking two years. Additionally price increases of four to nine times have been reported in the past 3 years."
My point is that the industry can't keep up with current demand.
If there was one event taking out the world's transformers, the power would go off, for the last time in cities, suburbia, grid tied regions!
"You begin to see the challenge. AI generates enormous new energy demand on top of everything else. This is pure growth, not the replacement for something that will go away—at least not yet."
Industrial civilisation was insatiable, before Artificial Intelligence: sic.
"The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human race is our inability to truly understand the exponential function." Albert Bartlett.
"New England could see resource adequacy troubles even with billions in investments: ISO-NE"
"Batteries make up 46% of ISO New England’s interconnection queue, but the grid operator said that as peak demand grows they may “struggle to recharge during the winter months.”
"Within the tech industry, it has been widely known that AI faces an energy crisis, but it was only at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that one of its leaders finally came clean about it. OpenAI’s boss Sam Altman warned that the next wave of generative AI systems will consume vastly more power than expected, and that energy systems will struggle to cope. “There’s no way to get there without a breakthrough,” he said."
"What kind of “breakthrough”? Why, nuclear fusion, of course. In which, coincidentally, Mr Altman has a stake, having invested in Helion Energy way back in 2021. Smart lad, that Altman; never misses a trick."
Like the IPCC they are gambling everything on a miracle, literally:
On further reflection of Guy's great article, I have cross posted it on my website with some ancillary links that indicate, wait for it, the predicament is "Worse than previously thought".
At the 9.40-minute mark in this new video from Nate Hagens he says that AI will need 10 times more energy in the next six months and another 10 fold in the following six months. Data via Elon Musk.
Clearly this is impossible and represents an additional existential threat to the grid!
Guy and I both have reservations with Nate's grasp of the ecological consequences of overshoot but this new detail is important imho.
"Musk also indicates that the growth of generative AI in computing in the form of chatbots has been rapid, allowing users to generate content and images within a moment's notice. He added that the adoption and rapid growth of the technology in computing is increasing by a factor of ten every six months. "I've never seen any technology advance faster than this," says Musk."
"Elon Musk says we're on the verge of the biggest technology revolution with AI, but there won't be enough power by 2025"
"Stunningly, the people in the industry have not yet agreed on the standards.” 😂🤣. I cant stop laughing at this comment. Made even more tragic/comic (“tragic-comedy”?) that my father and grandfather were in the power industry. Both warned repeatedly the infrastructure, power grids, etc. were dangerously inadequate, underfunded, in disrepair. Oh, I heard this first in the 1980’s. Yeah, time has not made this better.
The genetic mutation that allowed us to “question” quickly became unquestioning belief. Easier than lots of independent ideas. Perhaps like many mutations this one lead to our, and many other species extinction. Cognitive dissidence is a bummer.
Yes, it is my fault, along with everyone else, and I am terrified, even though I knew this would come sooner rather than later. We don't have to choose our poisons, there will be a whole smorgasbord.
"More than 650,000 homes, business and other utility customers remained without power Friday evening in Texas, according to PowerOutage.us. Nearly all of those were in Harris County, where Houston is located."
No electricity, no aircon
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-05-16-houston-severe-weather-tornado-rain
No aircon in hot, humid Houston brings to mind lethal wet-bulb temperatures. That’s inconvenient.
"A look at the great transformer shortage affecting U.S. utilities
An NREL team finds that lead times for transformers has grown fourfold in three years, with orders sometimes taking two years. Additionally price increases of four to nine times have been reported in the past 3 years."
My point is that the industry can't keep up with current demand.
If there was one event taking out the world's transformers, the power would go off, for the last time in cities, suburbia, grid tied regions!
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/03/07/a-look-at-the-great-transformer-shortage-affecting-u-s-utilities/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2Zfh-qD-peM5D-VVId0Rj8h8e7JaSsDaYnFwep_KYvfKRKDo6AdskH6-s_aem_AQakpCGyNilqSnlcVf2KmUqq925lct5048Ui3HuI-F-Ru-GOcna0mjkYCU6eFhZk0NhYkNsPZjwGn1INMz3r_pT_
… thereby triggering loss of aerosol masking, the fastest way to destroy habitat for life on Earth.
"AI could drive a natural gas boom as power companies face surging electricity demand"
Fancy that:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/05/ai-could-drive-natural-gas-boom-as-utilities-face-surging-electric-demand.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2paQUZ2jv4yvg-t_BiTxCNdg7zaYT45JzZOsfPdPwp9iJGpp6jl9TvJRs_aem_AWHCaJcy5uIJKHHQwM3dJsM_xAGvN-wWffJkFKxdA8Whs57DpPHiei7ddr0vPFwq220R-ENEzyNgQckBo0Tyr6iZ
Civilization is still a heat engine. My confidence in AI solving our myriad societal problems is not high.
"You begin to see the challenge. AI generates enormous new energy demand on top of everything else. This is pure growth, not the replacement for something that will go away—at least not yet."
Industrial civilisation was insatiable, before Artificial Intelligence: sic.
"The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human race is our inability to truly understand the exponential function." Albert Bartlett.
Powering the AI
By John Mauldin | Mar 23, 2024
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/powering-the-ai
"New England could see resource adequacy troubles even with billions in investments: ISO-NE"
"Batteries make up 46% of ISO New England’s interconnection queue, but the grid operator said that as peak demand grows they may “struggle to recharge during the winter months.”
Fancy that!
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electrification-extreme-weather-will-challenge-new-england-energy-resource-adequacy/710660/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue%3A%202024-03-19%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20[issue%3A60198]&utm_term=Utility%20Dive&fbclid=IwAR234JvReLF8lTuBS9l_MgxS4EFr1BjzKcarY6nBLNy--oWiajlqUD64P_w
New England is heating up very quickly. No, I did not move here to extend my life, as I was told many times. https://guymcpherson.com/science-update-new-england-is-overheating-rapidly/
"Within the tech industry, it has been widely known that AI faces an energy crisis, but it was only at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January that one of its leaders finally came clean about it. OpenAI’s boss Sam Altman warned that the next wave of generative AI systems will consume vastly more power than expected, and that energy systems will struggle to cope. “There’s no way to get there without a breakthrough,” he said."
"What kind of “breakthrough”? Why, nuclear fusion, of course. In which, coincidentally, Mr Altman has a stake, having invested in Helion Energy way back in 2021. Smart lad, that Altman; never misses a trick."
Like the IPCC they are gambling everything on a miracle, literally:
Courtesy of Nancy Beimen
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/02/ais-craving-for-data-is-matched-only-by-a-runaway-thirst-for-water-and-energy?utm_source=eml&utm_medium=emlf&utm_campaign=MK_SU_SOINewsletterv2Canvas&utm_term=Email_ROW&utm_content=variantA
Ack! Really, seriously, ACK!
On further reflection of Guy's great article, I have cross posted it on my website with some ancillary links that indicate, wait for it, the predicament is "Worse than previously thought".
Fancy that!
https://kevinhester.live/2024/03/09/science-snippets-much-of-north-america-faces-electricity-shortages-this-year-2024/
Inconceivable!
It's war, but not as we know it :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1Fp1A1JWT4
Elon Musk needs the money …
At the 9.40-minute mark in this new video from Nate Hagens he says that AI will need 10 times more energy in the next six months and another 10 fold in the following six months. Data via Elon Musk.
Clearly this is impossible and represents an additional existential threat to the grid!
Guy and I both have reservations with Nate's grasp of the ecological consequences of overshoot but this new detail is important imho.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxqxq4sUfh8
"Musk also indicates that the growth of generative AI in computing in the form of chatbots has been rapid, allowing users to generate content and images within a moment's notice. He added that the adoption and rapid growth of the technology in computing is increasing by a factor of ten every six months. "I've never seen any technology advance faster than this," says Musk."
"Elon Musk says we're on the verge of the biggest technology revolution with AI, but there won't be enough power by 2025"
https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/elon-musk-the-verge-of-ai-revolution-no-power
Must go faster. Must have more.
Thank you for the additional information, Kevin. I cannot force myself to watch Hagens as he defames me in his classes and elsewhere.
Yeah I totally understand that, but I knew it would be a detail you'd prefer to know.
If I find the direct Musk link to the data I'll drop it here for further reference.
"Stunningly, the people in the industry have not yet agreed on the standards.” 😂🤣. I cant stop laughing at this comment. Made even more tragic/comic (“tragic-comedy”?) that my father and grandfather were in the power industry. Both warned repeatedly the infrastructure, power grids, etc. were dangerously inadequate, underfunded, in disrepair. Oh, I heard this first in the 1980’s. Yeah, time has not made this better.
Wait, what? I thought time healed all wounds. This is definitely a gaping wound!
Just needs a bit of duck tape and psychotic denial. There, all better.
Over 300 million people? That sounds like most of the USA and Canada's population.
Nuclear power has been classified as 'renewable energy' by both governments. Most nuclear power plants are built near large cities.
Endless wars in various parts of the globe push things along at an even brisker pace, and the AMOC appears to be shutting down.
I suppose Kurt Vonnegut was right. Humanity did not like it here. I am sorry.
It’s a bummer. However, it is no more your fault than it is for the rest of us since the Cognitive Revolution more than 70,000 years ago.
The genetic mutation that allowed us to “question” quickly became unquestioning belief. Easier than lots of independent ideas. Perhaps like many mutations this one lead to our, and many other species extinction. Cognitive dissidence is a bummer.
Yes, it is my fault, along with everyone else, and I am terrified, even though I knew this would come sooner rather than later. We don't have to choose our poisons, there will be a whole smorgasbord.
Well, this is going to be bloody inconvenient, isn’t it?
So much for the 'Energy Transition' bollocks!
https://kevinhester.live/2016/06/17/global-dimming-keeping-the-planet-habitable/
😂🤣😂🤣
“Bloody inconvenient” is an understatement!
The only thing that even approaches renewable or sustainable energy is if we all turned into reptiles and layed in the sun to get warm.
Please join me in becoming a reptile!
I remember seeing a movie that explored this idea titled Ssssss. it was released in 1972.
😂