Science Snippets: ENSO Redux, Again

As often occurs when we release a video, abundant, relevant information appeared immediately after we posted ENSO Redux on this channel on 1 May 2023. That video indicated the strong possibility of an overdue El Niño Southern Oscillation occurring later this year. This video is designed to catch up with the recent information about the likelihood of an El Niño Southern Oscillation, shortened to ENSO.

The bottom line, of sorts, comes from the World Meteorological Organization, which released its April 2023 report on 8 May 2023 in Geneva, Switzerland. The report indicates that the world must prepare for a warm El Niño current that will raise temperatures to record levels this year: chances of an ENSO will reach 60% from May to July and then increase to 70% between June and August and 80% between July and September. It’s not clear to me how we are expected to prepare for loss of habitat for our species on the only planet known to support life. Regardless, this video again addresses the likely consequences of the coming ENSO, and how we might respond.

I’ll start with an overview from The Weather Network published on the same day the latest report was released from the World Meteorological Organization, 8 May 2023. The lede includes a quote from a few paragraphs into the article. Specifically, line comes from NOAA’s director of the Tropical Moored Buoy Array Program, Michael McPhaden: “The recent ‘triple dip’ La Niña has come to an end. Now that it’s over, we are likely seeing the climate change signal coming through loud and clear.”

Apparently, the “climate change signal” was not coming through clearly enough already. The likely ENSO later this year will overcome the opinions of even the most rabid deniers, according to climate reporters and climate scientists. Personally, I have my doubts.

According to the piece from The Weather Network, the world’s oceans began setting heat records on a near-daily basis in early March. By the end of March, the average sea surface temperature exceeded 21 degrees C for the first time since record-keeping began. The response from paid climate scientists is exactly as I’ve come to expect. Consider this quote from Michael Meredith, an oceanographer and Science Leader at the British Antarctic Survey: “The fact that it is warming as much as it has been is a real surprise, and very concerning.” A surprise, really? I understand the concern, but I’m surprised that anyone paying attention to the climate is, well, surprised that the ocean is warming.

Adding to the surprises—both from reporters and me—comes this quote from Emily Becker, the lead writer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s ENSO blog: “2022 was the 6th warmest year since records began in 1880, and that was with a non-stop La Niña. If El Niño develops this year, it increases the odds of record-warm global temperature.”

Oh, really? The release of heat and greenhouse gases from an overheated ocean will, “increase the odds of record-warm global temperature.” Who’duh thunk it?

Let’s dig a little deeper into this story. From the BBC, in a story published 25 April 2023 comes this headline: “Recent, rapid ocean warming ahead of El Niño alarms scientists.” According to the lede: “This month, the global sea surface hit a new record high temperature. It has never warmed this much, this quickly.” The following line is classic: “Scientists don’t fully understand why this happened.”

Perhaps those scientists could read the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 8 October 2018 report, Global Warming of 1.5°. According to this report, published more than four-and-a-half years ago: “These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces in the past.” The report then quotes two peer-reviewed papers, before going on: “even abrupt geophysical events do not approach current rates of human-driven change.” In other words, the ongoing, anthropogenic climate change underlies the fastest rate of environmental change in planetary history. Despite this fact being reported by the IPCC and two peer-reviewed articles, “Scientists don’t fully understand why this happened.” Specifically, scientists cannot figure out why the darned ocean is warming so quickly. Back to that story published by the BBC. Immediately after the line, “Scientists don’t fully understand why this happened,” we are told, “But they worry that, combined with other weather events, the world’s temperature could reach a concerning new level by the end of next year.”

A peer-reviewed article is then mentioned in the BBC paper with this line: “An important new study, published last week with little fanfare, highlights a worrying development.” The “important new study” can be reached via an embedded link. If it was published, “with little fanfare,” then I think we can blame corporate media such as the BBC for this oversight. Published in the peer-reviewed Earth System Science Data on 17 April 2023, the paper is titled, “Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: where does the energy go?” It was written by Karina von Schuckmann and 67 other scholars. The abstract informs us that about 89% of planetary heating is stored in the ocean. This, then, explains why informed people are properly concerned about the coming El Niño Southern Oscillation. After all, as I have reported previously in this space, the ocean acts as something of a battery. The El Niño Southern Oscillation releases heat and greenhouse gases from the storage system known as the world’s ocean. The bigger the ENSO, the more heat and greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere.

There’s much more information from the open-access, peer-reviewed paper in Earth System Science Data. During the past 15 years, Earth has accumulated almost as much energy as it did in the previous 45 years, with most of the extra energy going into the ocean. The real-world consequences pointed out by the BBC include stunningly high ocean temperatures off the eastern coast of North America. In response, von Schuckmann is quoted by the BBC: “We have doubled the heat in the climate system the last 15 years, I don’t want to say this is climate change, or natural variability or a mixture of both, we don’t know yet. But we do see this change.”

“I don’t want to say this is climate change …” Really? Because I really, really want to say this is climate change. Crazy as it seems, I want to say, quoting the stunningly scientifically conservative IPCC, that this is anthropogenic climate change. We did it. We continue to do it. The responsibility lies at our feet. Most notably, it lies at the feet of a few billionaires, as well as government officials and corporate media outlets working together.

I am surprised by one admission by the BBC, about halfway into the article. The aerosol masking effect is mentioned, albeit briefly: “One factor that could be influencing the level of heat going into the oceans, is, interestingly, a reduction in pollution from shipping. … aerosols that dirty the air also help reflect heat back into space – removing them may have caused more heat to enter the waters.”

Three days after the story was published by the BBC—the one that alarmed scientists—Wired published a story titled, An Ominous Heating Event is Unfolding in the Oceans. Here’s the subhead: “Average sea surface temperatures have soared to record highs, and stayed there. It’s a worrying signal of an ocean in crisis.” Yes, it’s worrying, and yes, life in the ocean and life on the planet is in the midst of a crisis.

The story in Wired quotes two surprised scientists, the lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit that gathers climate data, and a physical scientist and oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The former said, “It’s surprising to me that we’re this far off the trajectory. Usually when you have a particular warming event, we’re beating the previous record by a little bit. Right now we’re sitting well above the past records for this time of a year, for a considerable period of time.” The latter said, “Both the atmosphere and oceans are becoming warmer and warmer. If the atmosphere pushes the ocean, then the ocean will push back into the atmosphere.”

The story in Wired, again published on 28 April 2023, indicates a 62% chance of a classic ENSO developing by June or July, with a 40% chance of a strong ENSO. The story concludes with a researcher from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute wondering whether the ocean will become more of a desert over time. He points out that one of the consequences of heating the ocean’s surface is altered marine nutrient cycling. The story ends with him pondering whether the ocean will become more of a desert over time.

That’s a fine question: Will the ocean become more of a desert over time? If so, how soon? Considering the ongoing rate of environmental change on land and in the ocean, it appears desertification of terrestrial and marine systems will attract the attention of even paid climate scientists, government officials, and the corporate media. Well, won’t that be something?

An update from LiveScience published on 12 May 2023 is titled, Significant El Niño event is almost guaranteed this year, experts warn. And it could be a big one. The subhead tells the story: “NOAA researchers have predicted that an ocean-heating event known as El Niño is probably going to arrive in the next few months and persist into 2024.” The lead indicates there is more than a 90% chance of ENSO arriving within the coming few months, “and there is a good chance it will persist into 2024 and have a widespread impact, experts have warned.”

There is plenty of additional material about the El Niño Southern Oscillation that almost certainly lies in our near future. We will try to share some of that material with future videos in this space. In the meantime, please like and share this video. Share it even with people you don’t like. It’s likely to ruin their day, after all. And why limit that experience to you and me?