I'm not surprised by this catastrophic new paper; I have been expecting to see 'step changes' in the climate system and the multiplicative consequences of the six dozen feedback loops that Guy has identified. As Professor Peter Wadhams pointed out to Guy, the feedbacks are multiplicative, not 'only' additive!
In 2017 I wrote an article based on an analysis by David Wasdell that concluded that 10C was "baked in", the article is titled "Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated."
In May 2019 I woke up to find that Professor Peter Wadhams, possibly the most experienced scientist in the world when it comes to Arctic Sea Ice, had posted the following response to the blog post:
"The analysis of climate sensitivity by David Wasdell is very important. I have been through it with him several times and am convinced of its validity. I mentioned it in “A Farewell to Ice”. The point is that here is a big difference between the short term sensitivity, which is used to calculate warming over a few years, and the long term sensitivity which represents how much warming the earth is going to be subjected to if you don’t add more CO2 but let the effects of the present levels work their way fully through the climate system. Short term sensitivity is 2-4.5 C, but long term is more like 10C. The crime of IPCC and other modelling outfits is that they are aware of this difference between short and long term, but still use the short term value even when they are doing hand-waving studies of what is going to happen over the next century or two. In fact it;’s not just the case that the magic 1.5C or 2C warming is already “baked in” to the global system – in fact the baked in figure is more like 4-5 C. Hence the vital need for carbon drawdown. Best wishes Peter Wadhams"
Now with new analysis, we find that 14C is baked in!
I'll finish with a quote from the late great Albert Bartlett: "The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to truly understand the exponential Function."
Thanks Professor, the MSM seems to be gradually forthcoming with the more realistic information about our predicament. Humanity’s tombstone could read “it happened faster than previously expected”. Too bad we’re taking down the rest of life with us.
Too much speculation for this ole Doc, but many thanks to Guy for the piece. C3S published "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action", 5 June, 2024. In it, they state that global ave. surface temps have risen 0.75 degC since the 1991-2020 baseline (so, 3.5 yrs.) and that the current temp is 1.64 degC over a preindustrial baseline. So, according to their measurements, and if this current trend continues, we may see a 1 degC global temp rise EVERY FIVE YEARS., so 15 degC by 2,100, which corresponds to the rise predicted in this article derived from CO2 increase calculations. Today's global surface ave temp anomaly is 0.90 on their "Climate Pulse" page.
I've cross posted this analysis to my blog with additional corroboration from Professors David Wasdell, Peter Wadhams and Albert Bartlett.
https://kevinhester.live/2024/11/05/catastrophically-dire-peer-reviewed-paper-ignored-by-the-corporate-media/
Excellent idea. Thank you, Kevin.
Sam Carana has added Guy's video explanation to the blog piece below:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/models-downplay-wrath-of-what-they-sow.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawGOQmRleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHWYFET_fkx4oUYEkWexZnKKQpdCaa6pyNlowqDzYv4qNJkCUk9yAtrJkVA_aem_MmmKaOGOlSUN_7oemHpFGA
Sam Carana has added Guy's video explanation to the blog piece below:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/10/models-downplay-wrath-of-what-they-sow.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawGOQmRleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHWYFET_fkx4oUYEkWexZnKKQpdCaa6pyNlowqDzYv4qNJkCUk9yAtrJkVA_aem_MmmKaOGOlSUN_7oemHpFGA
free to use solving climate change https://www.designdeskinc.com/agricultural-field-cooler.html , https://www.designdeskinc.com/gravity-desalination-plant.html
Whoops! Civilization is a heat engine, regardless how it is powered.
the designs are not thermal conversions systems .... the Carnot cycle doesn't apply please review :)
I'm not surprised by this catastrophic new paper; I have been expecting to see 'step changes' in the climate system and the multiplicative consequences of the six dozen feedback loops that Guy has identified. As Professor Peter Wadhams pointed out to Guy, the feedbacks are multiplicative, not 'only' additive!
In 2017 I wrote an article based on an analysis by David Wasdell that concluded that 10C was "baked in", the article is titled "Full Earth System Sensitivity to CO2 has been Grossly Underestimated."
In May 2019 I woke up to find that Professor Peter Wadhams, possibly the most experienced scientist in the world when it comes to Arctic Sea Ice, had posted the following response to the blog post:
"The analysis of climate sensitivity by David Wasdell is very important. I have been through it with him several times and am convinced of its validity. I mentioned it in “A Farewell to Ice”. The point is that here is a big difference between the short term sensitivity, which is used to calculate warming over a few years, and the long term sensitivity which represents how much warming the earth is going to be subjected to if you don’t add more CO2 but let the effects of the present levels work their way fully through the climate system. Short term sensitivity is 2-4.5 C, but long term is more like 10C. The crime of IPCC and other modelling outfits is that they are aware of this difference between short and long term, but still use the short term value even when they are doing hand-waving studies of what is going to happen over the next century or two. In fact it;’s not just the case that the magic 1.5C or 2C warming is already “baked in” to the global system – in fact the baked in figure is more like 4-5 C. Hence the vital need for carbon drawdown. Best wishes Peter Wadhams"
Now with new analysis, we find that 14C is baked in!
I'll finish with a quote from the late great Albert Bartlett: "The Greatest Shortcoming of the Human Race is our inability to truly understand the exponential Function."
He too has been proven correct.
https://kevinhester.live/2017/11/10/full-earth-system-sensitivity-to-co2-has-been-grossly-underestimated/
I think you covered all the relevant scientists, Kevin: Wasdell, Wadhams, and Bartlett. As usual, you’ve provided an excellent overview.
Thank you for sharing my work. Thank you, too, for adding to it.
Thanks Professor, the MSM seems to be gradually forthcoming with the more realistic information about our predicament. Humanity’s tombstone could read “it happened faster than previously expected”. Too bad we’re taking down the rest of life with us.
Yes, they do seem increasingly forthcoming. Love your epitaph for our tombstone. Thank you for your comment, Billy.
Too much speculation for this ole Doc, but many thanks to Guy for the piece. C3S published "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action", 5 June, 2024. In it, they state that global ave. surface temps have risen 0.75 degC since the 1991-2020 baseline (so, 3.5 yrs.) and that the current temp is 1.64 degC over a preindustrial baseline. So, according to their measurements, and if this current trend continues, we may see a 1 degC global temp rise EVERY FIVE YEARS., so 15 degC by 2,100, which corresponds to the rise predicted in this article derived from CO2 increase calculations. Today's global surface ave temp anomaly is 0.90 on their "Climate Pulse" page.