Science Snippets: Arctic Sea Ice Affects European Summers, Marine Life, and All Life on Earth

Draft script:

As I have mentioned several times in this space, the loss of ice floating on the Arctic Ocean will have catastrophic effects for all life on Earth. Incorrectly predicted to occur in 2022 by Professor Jennifer MacKinnon at the University of California-San Diego and in 2023 by Harvard Professor James Anderson, the so-called planetary air conditioner is critical to the maintenance of habitat for life on Earth. Fortunately, these renowned professors were incorrect, even though Anderson said in an interview with Forbes published on 15 January 2018: “The chance there will be permanent ice in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero.”

Here we are in 2024, fortunate that these professors were wrong at that time. These predictions resemble Russian roulette. Eventually, there will be a loaded chamber for a blue ocean event.

Although there are other means by which humans could go extinct, the loss of albedo resulting from melting ice in the Arctic Ocean is the factor over which we have the least control. Additional research published by Inside Climate News on 1 March 2024 indicates the role of Arctic ice in controlling summer temperatures in Europe and North America. This recent article points to links between ice in the Arctic region and weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

The article published by Inside Climate News points to the stretch of open water east of Greenland that allows the Arctic to “pour its icy heart out to the North Atlantic. These flows include increasing surges of cold and fresh water from melted ice, and a new study in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics shows how these pulses can set off a chain reaction from the ocean to the atmosphere that ends up causing summer heatwaves and droughts in Europe.”

The peer-reviewed, open-access paper in Weather and Climate Dynamics was published 28 February 2024. It was written by seven scholars who conducted the research. It is titled European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years. This paper demonstrates how the behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean in the winter produces warmer and drier weather over Europe the following summer. According to the Abstract of the peer-reviewed paper: “The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter.”

The Conclusions section of the peer-reviewed, open-access paper in Weather and Climate Dynamics includes this information: “… enhanced freshwater anomalies are associated with colder, subpolar [sea surface temperature] anomalies and an increased [sea surface temperature] difference between the warm subtropical and the cold subpolar gyre in winter. The increased, meridional [sea surface temperature] gradient is linked to an amplified atmospheric instability and a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly with a more cyclonic circulation over the subpolar region and an anticyclonic anomaly to the south. This atmospheric circulation anomaly induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current which contributes to a warm anomaly to the south of the subpolar cold anomaly, amplifying meridional [sea surface temperature] gradient. In subsequent summers, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward over the North Atlantic in the wake of the cold [sea surface temperature] anomaly, aligned with the underlying [sea surface temperature] fronts. This northward deflection of the winds forms part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly consisting of a more cyclonic circulation over the subpolar North Atlantic region and a more anticyclonic circulation over parts of Europe, giving rise to warmer and drier weather over Europe.”

That’s a lot of scientific information and associated jargon! Get ready for more.

The bottom line, based on the study reported in the peer-reviewed journal article and also based on abundant additional peer-reviewed papers referenced in this paper:

“The atmospheric circulation in summer is characteristic of blocking anticyclones over Europe described in earlier studies. Thus, the warm surface anomalies can be explained by increased shortwave radiation in the centre of the anticyclones, while the dry anomalies to the east can be explained by the blocking of cyclonic weather systems. Further studies are required to quantify the relative contributions of ocean and atmospheric drivers to the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly in summer, their uncertainties, and the role of freshwater as a potential trigger of the identified chain of events. However, the obtained evolution of freshwater anomalies follows the chain of events expected from theory. In addition, the statistical links identified in this study suggest that the estimation of the extent, amplitude, and type of freshwater anomaly in any given winter can constrain the subsequent European summer weather, based on the evolution of past freshwater anomalies and the associated explained variances.

Current numerical weather prediction systems show very limited to no forecast skill for European summer weather. Thus, the existence of a link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and European summer weather indicates new potential to enhance the predictability of European summer weather a year in advance. Further studies that improve the representation of North Atlantic freshwater variations in models and that quantify the predictability arising from them are therefore desirable. In addition, targeted observational networks that monitor the variability in freshwater anomalies may help improve current forecast systems.

Linking European summer weather with North Atlantic freshwater anomalies, …, has the advantage that the occurrence of freshwater anomalies is easier to predict into the future than [sea surface temperature] anomalies due to having more narrowly defined drivers. In this study, we attributed the freshwater anomalies to only two main drivers on interannual timescales. One type of freshwater anomaly was linked to a change in the subpolar gyre circulation. The other type of freshwater anomaly was linked to enhanced runoff and melting. Runoff and melting, specifically, largely occur in summer, giving rise to a longer predictive timescale: half a year in advance of the cold and fresh anomalies in winter and 1 year in advance of the subsequent European summer weather anomalies.

The melting of land and sea ice are expected to increase … over the coming decades, resulting in an enhanced freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic. With stronger freshwater anomalies, our results indicate an increase in the risk of warm, dry European summers and of heat waves and droughts accordingly. Unfortunately, global climate models have difficulties in capturing the hydrographic structure and freshwater distribution in the subpolar North Atlantic. … Considering the identified links between freshwater anomalies and subsequent ocean-atmosphere evolution, our results suggest that models may miss a key source of climate variability and potential long-range predictability.”

The ongoing warming of the Arctic region is already having expectedly dire consequences. The planetary air conditioner is seriously damaged, with consequences that vary from expectedly awful to unexpectedly worse.

Need I point out yet again that what happens in the Arctic is merely an indication of a seriously damaged planetary climate? Need I point out yet again that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic? Probably not. I did it anyway.

Need I point out yet again that what happens as a result of human actions is rooted in the Cognitive Revolution from more than 70,000 years ago? Need I point out yet again that we have little or no control over behaviors rooted in evolution by natural selection? Probably not. I did it anyway.