We are on the verge of global famines reducing the human population by around 1 to 1.5 billion by 2035. That's what your headline should read. It's shocking enough to perhaps "break through" people's inertia and ignorance around the Climate Crisis.
Report: Warmer planet will trigger increased farm losses.
Extreme heat is already harming crop yields, but a new report quantifies just how much that warming is cutting into farmers’ financial security.
For every 1 degree Celsius of warming, yields of major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat fall by 16% to 20%, gross farm income falls by 7% and net farm income plummets 66%.
Those findings, reported in a policy brief released Jan. 17, are based on an analysis of 39 years of data from nearly 7,000 Kansas farms.
OUR AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IS ALREADY ABOUT 20% LESS THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WITHOUT GLOBAL WARMING.
This has already started. In the run up to +2°C we are going to see another 20% decline in US agricultural outputs.
We will hit +2°C (sustained) by no later than 2035. Probably sometime between 2030 and 2035.
Growing wheat is getting harder in a hotter world: study — The Hill 06/02/2023
Two of the world’s major wheat-growing regions are skating on the ragged edge of a catastrophic failure.
Since 1981, wheat-withering heat waves have become 16 times more common in the Midwest, according to a study published Friday in the journal NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science.
Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China.
That means a crop-destroying temperature spike that might have come to the Midwest once in a century in 1981 will now visit the region approximately every 6 years, the study has found. In China, such frequency has risen to every 16 years.
Wheat is the main food grain produced in the United States. These findings are a sign that farmers need to be prepared for a future that is markedly more disrupted than the past, the authors wrote.
“The historical record is no longer a good representation of what we can expect for the future. We live in a changed climate and people are underestimating current day possibilities for extreme events,” — Coughlan de Perez Tufts University
As we move RAPIDLY TO a +2°C world, we are looking at an overall decline in agricultural outputs of around -20% by 2035. This decline is likely to be compounded by multifocal production failures in the world's eight "breadbasket" regions.
The UN reports that about 1.5B people already live with "food insecurity".
By 2035, most of them are likely to be dead.
That's HOW FAST this is about to wash over the world.
If 2 C will kill us all, then we are already dead. According to the IPCC, we are experiencing the fastest rate of environmental change in planetary history. This will reduce the human population to zero, not 1-1.5 billion.
The food shortages mentioned are all as a result of climate change. There is another threat to food production: War.
Ukraine used to be called "The Breadbasket of Europe". Now it's the basket case of Europe, after two years of war.
Their crop numbers are down due to climate change and most of their farmers being either dead, injured or on the war front.
In 2014 Counter Punch ran an article accusing Monsanto of playing a role in the coup orchestrated by Victoria Nuland et al, the article is titled Monsanto and Ukraine.
I'll drop it below for further reference.
I've added this analysis to my previous blog post on the evolving food crisis that also has an earlier video from Guy.
Thanks, Guy, for another informative piece on the environment and climate/civilization collapse, and to you and yours: HAVE A VERY HAPPY HOLIDAY! I do not agree with your disparaging words for C3S, their recording of a 1.23 degC October surface air temp increase for Europe, over the 1991-2020 baseline, as that averages to 0.31 degC annually, which extrapolates to a 1 degC increase every 3.23 yrs. On that trend line, we see a 6 degC Europe by 2025 + 12 = 2037 CE. Fast enough for you? Europe is the fastest warming subcontinent on the planet, currently at 2.3 degC ave surface air temp over 1991-2020 baseline. The real problem with giving realistic ave. surface air temp increases is the use of earlier lower annual numbers in the pre-industrial baselines which lower the averages, so, C3S , intelligently and honestly uses the far more telling/pertinent 1991-2020 baseline. Agree? Have a blessed day, Gregg
We are on the verge of global famines reducing the human population by around 1 to 1.5 billion by 2035. That's what your headline should read. It's shocking enough to perhaps "break through" people's inertia and ignorance around the Climate Crisis.
Report: Warmer planet will trigger increased farm losses.
https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/01/report-warmer-planet-will-trigger-increased-farm-losses
Extreme heat is already harming crop yields, but a new report quantifies just how much that warming is cutting into farmers’ financial security.
For every 1 degree Celsius of warming, yields of major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat fall by 16% to 20%, gross farm income falls by 7% and net farm income plummets 66%.
Those findings, reported in a policy brief released Jan. 17, are based on an analysis of 39 years of data from nearly 7,000 Kansas farms.
OUR AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IS ALREADY ABOUT 20% LESS THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WITHOUT GLOBAL WARMING.
This has already started. In the run up to +2°C we are going to see another 20% decline in US agricultural outputs.
We will hit +2°C (sustained) by no later than 2035. Probably sometime between 2030 and 2035.
Growing wheat is getting harder in a hotter world: study — The Hill 06/02/2023
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4031972-growing-wheat-is-getting-harder-in-a-hotter-world-study/
Two of the world’s major wheat-growing regions are skating on the ragged edge of a catastrophic failure.
Since 1981, wheat-withering heat waves have become 16 times more common in the Midwest, according to a study published Friday in the journal NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science.
Potential for surprising heat and drought events in wheat-producing regions of USA and China.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00361-y
That means a crop-destroying temperature spike that might have come to the Midwest once in a century in 1981 will now visit the region approximately every 6 years, the study has found. In China, such frequency has risen to every 16 years.
Wheat is the main food grain produced in the United States. These findings are a sign that farmers need to be prepared for a future that is markedly more disrupted than the past, the authors wrote.
“The historical record is no longer a good representation of what we can expect for the future. We live in a changed climate and people are underestimating current day possibilities for extreme events,” — Coughlan de Perez Tufts University
As we move RAPIDLY TO a +2°C world, we are looking at an overall decline in agricultural outputs of around -20% by 2035. This decline is likely to be compounded by multifocal production failures in the world's eight "breadbasket" regions.
The UN reports that about 1.5B people already live with "food insecurity".
By 2035, most of them are likely to be dead.
That's HOW FAST this is about to wash over the world.
According to governments of the world, 1.5 C is behind us. 2 C is behind us. Time to catch up with the evidence? https://guymcpherson.com/science-update-earths-energy-imbalance/
If 2 C will kill us all, then we are already dead. According to the IPCC, we are experiencing the fastest rate of environmental change in planetary history. This will reduce the human population to zero, not 1-1.5 billion.
The food shortages mentioned are all as a result of climate change. There is another threat to food production: War.
Ukraine used to be called "The Breadbasket of Europe". Now it's the basket case of Europe, after two years of war.
Their crop numbers are down due to climate change and most of their farmers being either dead, injured or on the war front.
In 2014 Counter Punch ran an article accusing Monsanto of playing a role in the coup orchestrated by Victoria Nuland et al, the article is titled Monsanto and Ukraine.
I'll drop it below for further reference.
I've added this analysis to my previous blog post on the evolving food crisis that also has an earlier video from Guy.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2014/08/22/monsanto-and-ukraine/
"On the Verge of Starvation"
https://kevinhester.live/2023/03/23/on-the-verge-of-starvation/
I suspect two years of war is only the beginning. The go-to action in this country is war. Naturally, death follows, for humans and other organisms.
Thank you for sharing my work and adding to it. I appreciate both your work and your collegiality.
Thanks, Guy, for another informative piece on the environment and climate/civilization collapse, and to you and yours: HAVE A VERY HAPPY HOLIDAY! I do not agree with your disparaging words for C3S, their recording of a 1.23 degC October surface air temp increase for Europe, over the 1991-2020 baseline, as that averages to 0.31 degC annually, which extrapolates to a 1 degC increase every 3.23 yrs. On that trend line, we see a 6 degC Europe by 2025 + 12 = 2037 CE. Fast enough for you? Europe is the fastest warming subcontinent on the planet, currently at 2.3 degC ave surface air temp over 1991-2020 baseline. The real problem with giving realistic ave. surface air temp increases is the use of earlier lower annual numbers in the pre-industrial baselines which lower the averages, so, C3S , intelligently and honestly uses the far more telling/pertinent 1991-2020 baseline. Agree? Have a blessed day, Gregg