The reliable data from C3S indicates currently a 1 degC global ave. temp increase every 5-6yrs. See their "Climate Pulse" page and 7-18-24 article "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action". The "hockey stick" curve of climate collapse portends the Seneca curve into extinction. Have a blessed day!
Right, so 1.52 (or 1.65, or...) + 1.0 by 2030, or 2.52 by 2030 (or sooner), 3.52 by 2036, or 4.52 by 2042, or 5.52 by 2048, or, who the hell cares by then? Any child unfortunate enough to be born today will be turning 24 as we approach 6 degC over the 1991-2020 C3S baseline. Won't need the candles by then?
Sorry for the oversight! I did see that Europe is at 2.3 degC already. Maybe all the floods and non-stop rain will cool things down, or the failure of the AMOC? All good, anyway. Keep up the great, courageous work! You are not alone, and neither am I.
Guy and I have been warning of the possibility of huge methane releases from the sub-marine methane clathrates. Paid liars like Michael E Mann have been denying that threat.
This new paper proves us right and Mann a liar, not wrong, a bare faced liar.
From the “Main” section of the attendant peer-reviewed paper: “Permeable beds within the clinoforms that form the shelf, slope and base of the slope of continental margins could provide a route for methane to migrate up-dip14, below the HSZ and bypassing it, to beyond its landward limit where water depths are lower at the shelf break and shelf (~100–300 m). This could be important given the amount of methane that could be released and because thousands of vents beyond the landward limit have been observed elsewhere15. Also, venting in shallower water increases the chance of flux to the atmosphere8,16.”
Once again Guy thank you for being a beacon of honesty. While the vast majority of the population is paralyzed with distractions only a few in comparison care to consider the horrifying wave that has been forming. I recently had the opportunity to ask a college student about collapse and if there is ever talk about it amongst thier peers? I could tell the simple question was unpleasent (understandable), but the answer still disturbing, "We choose not to talk about it".
Thank you for your informed comment, Craig. I’m pretty sure not talking about our shared predicament will not help anyone. Of course, talking about it will not fix it, although it will at least allow people to properly grieve and--in the spirit of the Grief Recovery Institute--it will allow a personal solution.
Four years ago, Guy and I interviewed Arthur Keller, on his YouTube presentation titled "Collapse, the Only Realistic Scenario", I've added Guy's latest work to that blog post with the following quote from the featured article:
“When do we know that a civilization is on the verge of collapse? In his now almost 20-year-old classic, Diamond identified three key indicators or precursors of imminent dissolution: a persistent pattern of environmental change for the worse like long-lasting droughts; signs that existing modes of agriculture or industrial production were aggravating the crisis; and an elite failure to abandon harmful practices and adopt new means of production. At some point, a critical threshold is crossed and collapse invariably follows."
I've been studying collapse since 1982 when I visited Mayan Ruins in Central America.
All the triggers for the Mayan collapse exist today with one fundamental exception, complexity.
There has never been a civilisation remotely as complex as ours, that complexity is our "Achillies Heal".
Bit by bit, slowly but surely the reality of our predicament begins to dawn on the masses and to a lesser degree the social commentators but as always, we're given the "Edited Highlights".
Before I share it around Guy, was the clip meant to not have an audio commentary? I checked here and directly on YouTube with two different devices!
Professor Corey Bradshaw's paper on Extinction Cascades was cited.
The paper and Guy and my interview with the good professor are both embedded below!
The reliable data from C3S indicates currently a 1 degC global ave. temp increase every 5-6yrs. See their "Climate Pulse" page and 7-18-24 article "Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action". The "hockey stick" curve of climate collapse portends the Seneca curve into extinction. Have a blessed day!
1 C every 5-6 years, and Earth is already beyond 2 C. What could possibly go wrong?
Right, so 1.52 (or 1.65, or...) + 1.0 by 2030, or 2.52 by 2030 (or sooner), 3.52 by 2036, or 4.52 by 2042, or 5.52 by 2048, or, who the hell cares by then? Any child unfortunate enough to be born today will be turning 24 as we approach 6 degC over the 1991-2020 C3S baseline. Won't need the candles by then?
Earth is already beyond 2 C, as I’ve frequently reported here and also at guymcpherson.com
Sorry for the oversight! I did see that Europe is at 2.3 degC already. Maybe all the floods and non-stop rain will cool things down, or the failure of the AMOC? All good, anyway. Keep up the great, courageous work! You are not alone, and neither am I.
I long for the day that I can come to Guy's Substack posts with a link refuting his and now my conclusions.
However, the evidence mounts in support of Guy's hypothesis.
It looks a lot like the USA is heading for another dustbowl.
https://www.wired.com/story/texas-water-drought-winter-weather-shortage/?fbclid=IwAR1lowJgBDLkPX728RPPDzTowqlKGMj7M5NZw-fpqeYpUVYApqrRprEQsE8
I long for that day, too, Kevin. Unfortunately, I believe that notion falls into the category of wishful thinking.
Guy and I have been discussing the threat climate change poses to food production.
This new paper confirms our concerns.
It's nothing that Guy didn't already know but it is a new paper just released confirming our predicament is always worse than we knew yesterday.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2411366-extreme-droughts-are-worse-for-plants-than-we-thought/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=echobox&utm_medium=social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3SeynOxQJzv8Sa8zPiOTo7XhUDrEct4rcDtncSKKJu07wLkkeUHw4J2Xc#Echobox=1704837638
Stunningly, the corporate media admits what is happening with methane. What next? Writing about the aerosol masking effect?
Guy and I have been warning of the possibility of huge methane releases from the sub-marine methane clathrates. Paid liars like Michael E Mann have been denying that threat.
This new paper proves us right and Mann a liar, not wrong, a bare faced liar.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/12/231206115915.htm?fbclid=IwAR1KDcnhfbJ3d_Np8urTviwD-Yw1x6k2y2EA807VILuxnRO2ES7D2CQ3xms
From the “Main” section of the attendant peer-reviewed paper: “Permeable beds within the clinoforms that form the shelf, slope and base of the slope of continental margins could provide a route for methane to migrate up-dip14, below the HSZ and bypassing it, to beyond its landward limit where water depths are lower at the shelf break and shelf (~100–300 m). This could be important given the amount of methane that could be released and because thousands of vents beyond the landward limit have been observed elsewhere15. Also, venting in shallower water increases the chance of flux to the atmosphere8,16.”
Once again Guy thank you for being a beacon of honesty. While the vast majority of the population is paralyzed with distractions only a few in comparison care to consider the horrifying wave that has been forming. I recently had the opportunity to ask a college student about collapse and if there is ever talk about it amongst thier peers? I could tell the simple question was unpleasent (understandable), but the answer still disturbing, "We choose not to talk about it".
Thank you for your informed comment, Craig. I’m pretty sure not talking about our shared predicament will not help anyone. Of course, talking about it will not fix it, although it will at least allow people to properly grieve and--in the spirit of the Grief Recovery Institute--it will allow a personal solution.
There is a new update to "Limits to Growth", it's central to this debate imho.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/375610074_Recalibration_of_limits_to_growth_An_update_of_the_World3_model
I was sent this link a few times today, although I’ve not had a chance to read it
Four years ago, Guy and I interviewed Arthur Keller, on his YouTube presentation titled "Collapse, the Only Realistic Scenario", I've added Guy's latest work to that blog post with the following quote from the featured article:
“When do we know that a civilization is on the verge of collapse? In his now almost 20-year-old classic, Diamond identified three key indicators or precursors of imminent dissolution: a persistent pattern of environmental change for the worse like long-lasting droughts; signs that existing modes of agriculture or industrial production were aggravating the crisis; and an elite failure to abandon harmful practices and adopt new means of production. At some point, a critical threshold is crossed and collapse invariably follows."
I've been studying collapse since 1982 when I visited Mayan Ruins in Central America.
All the triggers for the Mayan collapse exist today with one fundamental exception, complexity.
There has never been a civilisation remotely as complex as ours, that complexity is our "Achillies Heal".
Good luck everyone!
https://kevinhester.live/2019/09/05/collapse-the-only-realistic-scenario/
Thank you, Kevin. Yet again you’ve added key information.
Audio has been repaired!
Bit by bit, slowly but surely the reality of our predicament begins to dawn on the masses and to a lesser degree the social commentators but as always, we're given the "Edited Highlights".
Before I share it around Guy, was the clip meant to not have an audio commentary? I checked here and directly on YouTube with two different devices!
Professor Corey Bradshaw's paper on Extinction Cascades was cited.
The paper and Guy and my interview with the good professor are both embedded below!
https://kevinhester.live/2020/06/04/professor-corey-bradshaw-explains-the-unfolding-extinction-cascades-on-nature-bats-last/
Apparently, there is no audio with this video. Please read the draft script on Substack until it is repaired. We’re working on it!
Just read the audio issue has been picked up, thx. I'll stand by!