Every Large Economy on Earth is Shrinking

Draft script:

An economic slowdown in China spells trouble for the world, and not only with respect to the economy. Such an event could easily lead to loss of aerosol masking at a sufficient level to rapidly heat Earth beyond the two degrees Celsius we have already bypassed.

China, the United States, India, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy are experiencing stunningly slow economic growth. As I have said for many years, the so-called Great Recession has not ended. World leaders were able to convince the masses otherwise. The evidence indicates that climate change is causing a worldwide reduction in economic growth. Perhaps we are amid an economic event greater than the Great Depression from more than 80 years ago. In any event, the global fiscal outlook is terrible.

As you probably expected, anthropogenic climate change is to blame for this ongoing economic event. Based on articles from corporate media outlets, let’s examine the numbers.

The Economic Times reported on 16 September 2024 that the Chinese economy is headed for a severe slowdown. The article is titled Forget the US, it’s the Chinese economy that is heading for a severe slowdown; here’s how it could impact the world. The story opens with a Synopsis: “The Chinese economy could be on the brink of an impending recession, something the United States is already facing. … Moreover, reports suggest that the economy of China is slowly heading towards a severe slowdown too, meaning that it has the capacity to effect the entire world.” Here’s the lede: “The entire world could be feeling the effect of an impending recession in a country, something that is already raising alarms across worldwide stock markets.” The first paragraph finishes with this sentence: “China, one of the most powerful countries in terms of international trade, is feeling the effect of recession fears, and could end up falling short of its economic targets.”

The next four paragraphs fall into two subsections. Under the subhead “Jobless rate increase biggest recession indicator” comes this paragraph: “The jobless rate sharply increased in China, with the current figure being the highest in the last six months, as per a Bloomberg report. Moreover, factory output and investment also showed major risks in the Chinese economy, which could extend its wings to other parts of the world as well, leading to major economic concerns across the world.”

Beneath the subhead “China could end up in a[n] economic spiral” comes this paragraph: “Housing prices showed a sharp drop in recent months, the fastest in the last 10 years, that clearly depicts a lack of confidence in the Chinese economy, and rate cuts have done little to ease up the market scenario. Meanwhile, there are calls from market gurus from across the globe for China to adapt an aggressive policy response, with just a few months left for the end of the financial year in China.”

The article in The Economic Times concludes with this bottom line: “The fears of an impending recession in China is [are] increasing with every passing day, and as the year ends, the country is well short of its economic target, leading to confidence loss among Chinese investors.”

More bad news about China’s economy comes from Barron’s. The headline from 21 September 2024 reads China’s Economy Is Sputtering. More pain may be ahead in 2025. The lede tells the story: “China’s economic troubles are deepening, with one economist warning clients the country is headed for a recession—and could need a U.S.-style bank bailout.” If that sounds unsettling, then you are paying attention. As I said, an economic slowdown in China spells trouble for the world, and not only with respect to the economy. Such an event could easily lead to loss of aerosol masking and therefore rapidly heat Earth beyond the two degrees C already behind us.

A second article from The Economic Times refers to the United States. Published on 28 November 2024, it is titled Recession to hit USA soon? Here’s what Americans expect. Again, it begins with a Synopsis: “The US economy is witnessing an improved outlook from Americans. This has come after Donald Trump has won the Presidential election.” The opening paragraph brings a surprise, at least to me: “Apprehensions over the likelihood of recession hitting the US economy often send around the globe. However, Americans’ outlook on the economy improved modestly in November, lifted by expectations for lower inflation and more hiring.”

For those of you looking for even more evidence that people in the country of my birth aren’t the brightest bulbs in the pack, this is it. I seriously doubt, based on Trump’s prior experience in the Oval Office and the statements he has made leading up to his forthcoming tenure as President, that “expectations for lower inflation and more hiring” will be met by reality in either expectation. In fact, this article in The Economic Times indicates “that sentiment surveys may not be as useful a guide to the economy’s direction as they were in the past.”

When asked about their hopes for 2025, “consumers overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the new year.” These dreams of lower prices came a few hours after “Trump said he would impose stiff 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10 per cent on imports from China. Economists and some retailers warn that such duties, if enacted, would be inflationary.”

The article concludes with a line from Samuel Tombs, the chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: “Households for now seem to have their heads in the sand about the potential uplifts to consumer prices from tariffs and deportations, or they think Trump wasn’t serious about his intentions during the campaign.” I suspect Trump was serious about his intentions during the campaign. Tough times lie ahead.

From the Business Standard on 7 December 2024 comes an article titled India GDP growth hits 7-quarter low of 5.4% in Q2 amid manufacturing slump. The first paragraph provides context: “India’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth for the July-September quarter dropped to a surprising 5.4 per cent, the lowest level since Q3FY23, [the third quarter of 2023], according to data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on November 29 [, 2024]. This figure represents a sharp fall from 8.1 per cent in the same period last year and 6.7 per cent in the April-June quarter.

Economists had projected a moderation to 6.5 per cent, but the economy underperformed expectations, plunging to a near two-year low.”

The bottom line comes in the final two sentences: “India’s economic recovery faces headwinds as inflation persists and corporate earnings falter. Economists caution that these issues could further impact private consumption, a key growth driver.”

From Euronews on 9 October 2024 comes another dismal story about economics. Titled Germany’s economic struggles deepen: A back-to-back recession looms, the article opens with these two sentences: “Germany’s economic downturn deepens with a projected contraction in 2024, marking its second consecutive year of decline. Manufacturing struggles and global competition, especially from China, highlight structural issues.” Based on economic troubles in China, perhaps Germany’s projected economic contraction will allow it to keep up with this ongoing race to the bottom.

From Reuter’s comes an article about France on 4 November 2024. Titled French industry stuck in recession and outlook stays bleak, survey finds, here’s the lede: “France’s manufacturing sector remained stuck in decline in October as factory output fell at its fastest rate in nine months, dragged down by low new orders, particularly from international clients.” An economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank said “The French manufacturing sector remains mired in a deep crisis. The outlook remains bleak, with no sign of an upward trend on the horizon.”

The article closed with two paragraphs: “[t]he downturn was exacerbated by a steep fall in export orders, which decreased at one of the fastest rates in the survey’s history amid geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy.