Will AMOC Kill Us All?

Draft script:

You’ve probably heard a lot about the AMOC, which is short for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current. Based on my awkward pronunciation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, you can understand why I prefer the acronym, AMOC. With this video, I will provide an overview of the AMOC, including how it threatens to rapidly cool a significant portion of Earth. I will then explain why I’m skeptical of this outcome.

CNN published an article on 26 July 2023 titled A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet.’ The first two paragraphs follow:

“A vital system of ocean currents could collapse within a few decades if the world continues to pump out planet-heating pollution, scientists are warning – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and ‘affect every person on the planet.’”

“A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature found that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current – of which the Gulf Stream in a part – could collapse around the middle of the century, or even as early as 2025.”

The paper was published in Nature Communications, not Nature. But I digress.

It is no exaggeration to claim that the AMOC is critical to the continued retention of habitat for life on Earth. It is a complex tangle of currents that, among other things, works like a giant conveyor belt that transports warm water from the tropics toward the North Atlantic. At this point, the water cools and becomes saltier. It therefore sinks deep into the ocean before spreading south. Importantly, the AMOC contributes to the regulation of global weather patterns. Its collapse would trigger extreme winters and rising sea levels in western Europe and the northeastern United States. Further from home, a collapsed AMOC would shift the timing and magnitude of the tropical monsoon.

More than 12,000 years ago, the rapid melting of glaciers caused the AMOC to shut down. Within a decade, temperature fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere reached 10-15 degrees Celsius, or 18-27 degrees Fahrenheit. The president of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who was not involved in the research studies mentioned in this video, said the shutdown of the AMOC “would affect every person on the planet – it’s that big and important.”

The research study referenced by CNN was published on 25 July 2023. The title is Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As I indicated, this open-access, peer-reviewed paper was published in Nature Communications. And yes, I know: 25 July 2023 was a long time ago.

Skipping to the final sentence of the Introduction in the peer-reviewed paper, we find this sentence: “In this work, we show that a transition of the AMOC is most likely to occur around 2025-2095 (90% confidence interval).” The 70-year range from 2025 to 2095 leaves a lot to be desired. After all, abundant evidence indicates we will lose habitat for human animals long before 2095 and also long before 2050. Evidence upon which I have depended for many years indicates we likely will not survive until 2030. However, if the predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean by renowned professors at Harvard and the University of California (San Diego) are nearly correct, then our continued survival likely will cease before 2026.

Anyone paying attention to my work for the last several years knows that the four-year difference between 2026 and 2030 is quite significant. Imagine the adventures you can pack into four years!

The reason I am reporting this relatively old information is because a relatively new paper was published at Inside Climate News. Published on 1 March 2024, this recent paper addresses the AMOC and its potential impacts. The title is Study Pinpoints Links Between Melting Arctic Ice and Summertime Extreme Weather in Europe. The subhead refers to a recent peer-reviewed paper published in Weather and Climate Dynamics: “New research shows how last year’s warming melted ice in Greenland that increased flows of fresh, cold water into the North Atlantic, upsetting ocean currents in ways that lead to atmospheric changes.”

The peer-reviewed, open-access paper in Weather and Climate Dynamics is titled European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years. Published 28 February 2024, the research addresses mechanisms underlying the relatively recent loss of Arctic ice. Specifically, the study focuses on the link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and summer weather in Europe. The study finds “that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with a sharper sea surface temperature front between the subpolar and the subtropical North Atlantic in winter, an increased atmospheric instability above the sea surface temperature front, and a large-scale atmospheric circulation that induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current, strengthening the sea surface temperature front. In the following summer, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward along the enhanced sea surface temperature front and the European coastline, forming part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly that is associated with warmer and drier weather over Europe. The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter.”

The final paragraph in the Conclusions section includes a particularly telling line: “… our results indicate an increase in the risk of warm, dry European summers and of heat waves and droughts accordingly.”

If you’re paying attention, you’ll notice that this information contradicts the usual conclusion about AMOC. Specifically, “warm, dry European summers and heat waves and droughts accordingly” is completely contrary to the customary message regarding the AMOC. This new peer-reviewed, open-access paper in Weather and Climate Dynamics reaches a conclusion consistent with the continued heating of the planet. As expected, none of the papers I’ve mentioned in this video mention the aerosol masking effect. As expected, none of the papers I’ve mentioned in this video mention the stripping away of stratospheric ozone as nuclear facilities meltdown. Both the aerosol masking effect and the abrupt heating of Earth associated with the implosion of nuclear facilities support the idea that Earth is heating and will continue to heat even in the face of AMOC. Thus, my conclusion: Earth will continue to overheat in the face of AMOC, contrary to the non-evidentiary nonsense you read from paid climate scientists and media personalities. However, that should come as no surprise to you.