Science Snippets: The Ability to Grow Food is Threatened by Climate Change

Draft script:

From Eureka Alert comes an article titled Potassium depletion in soil threatens global crop yields. The article was published 19 February 2024. Here’s the lede: “Potassium deficiency in agricultural soils is a largely unrecognized by potentially significant threat to global food security if left unaddressed ...” The article goes on: “Potassium is a vital nutrient for plant growth that helps with photosynthesis and respiration, the lack of which can inhibit plant growth and reduce crop yields. Farmers often spread potassium-rich fertilisers over their fields to replenish the depleted nutrients, but supply issues can inhibit its use, and there are lingering questions about its environmental impact.”

The article in Eureka Alert indicates that about 20% of agricultural soils are experiencing potassium deficiency. Due to intensive agricultural practices, the impact is much greater in some regions. For example, South-East Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa are plagued with agricultural soils that suffer from 44%, 39%, and 30% potassium deficiency, respectively.

The article in Eureka Alert points to a peer-reviewed paper in the renowned Nature series. One of the co-authors of the peer-reviewed paper is quoted in the Eureka Alert paper: “Potassium is critical to sustaining the crop yields that keep the world fed, and its depletion poses a significant threat to the food security of millions of people around the world. This is an overlooked issue that needs to be addressed with a range of actions as the world population continues to grow.” One of the obvious actions would be to reduce the rate of growth of the human population. However, this idea is taboo.

The following paragraph in Eureka Alert subtly indicates one of the reasons places such as South-East Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa have difficulty buying the potash that serves as a fertilizer to replenish potassium: Potash production is highly concentrated, with just a dozen countries dominating the international market for potassium fertilizers. Canada, Russia, Belarus, and China produce 80% of the world’s potash, which has an international market approaching 12 billion English pounds. With these countries controlling the international market, it is small wonder underdeveloped countries have difficulty coming up with the money to access significant amounts of potash, which is a necessary ingredient for food production. As one example of the volatility of the global market, the price of potash increased 500% between 2021 and 2022. Potash is an impure combination of potassium carbonate and potassium salt from which potassium is extracted.

Significant impacts have already arrived in many countries. Farmers in many countries cannot afford the exorbitant price of potash.

Newsweek weighs in with an article published on 21 February 2024. The article is titled US Crops Under Threat From ‘Unsustainable Phenomenon.’ The article in Newsweek opens with these two sentences: “A lack of potassium in agricultural soils will have severe effects on crops, a new study has found. The study, published in Nature Food, by University College London, University of Edinburgh, and the U.K. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, discovered that potassium is being removed from soils faster than it is being added.

This, of course, is the story of civilizations. Every civilization requires the ability to grow, store, and distribute grains at a large scale. The specific civilization in which we find ourselves, Industrial Civilization, seemingly is characterized by a motto: Must go faster. To what end? The underlying motto for each of us embedded within this set of living arrangements: Must have more.

Turning to the peer-reviewed paper, we find it titled Global food security threatened by potassium neglect. It was published on 19 February 2024 in Nature Food. I will read the short Abstract: “Food security and healthy ecosystems are placed in jeopardy by poor potassium management. Six actions may prevent declines in crop yield due to soil potassium deficiency, safeguard farmers from potash price volatility, and address environmental concerns associated with potash mining.”

Although the peer-reviewed paper is not open-access, the six actions are listed in the article in Eureka Alert. Specifically, the article in Eureka Alert includes this information:

The researchers put forward six recommendations for policies and practices to prevent potential crop yield declines, safeguard farmers from price volatility, and address environmental concerns. The recommendations include: (1) Setting up a global assessment of current potassium stocks and flows to identify the most at-risk countries and regions; (2) Establishing national capabilities for monitoring, predicting, and responding to potassium price fluctuations; (3) Helping farmers maintain sufficient soil potassium levels with further research about the yield implications of limited potassium in various crops and soils; (4) Evaluating the environmental effects of potash mining and developing sustainable application practices; (5) Developing a global circular potassium economy that minimizes the use and maximizes the reuse and recycling of the nutrient; and (6) Increasing intergovernmental cooperation through the UN and other agencies to develop global policy coordination akin to what’s been developed for nitrogen. I’ll offer my perspective about each of the six recommendations.

First, “setting up a global assessment of current potassium stocks and flows to identify the most at-risk countries and regions” seems like a fine idea. I suspect there is a reason this idea has not been pursued. I suspect that idea is underlain by power. Calling me cynical will have me citing George Carlin: “Scratch any cynic and you’ll uncover a disappointed idealist.”

Second, “establishing national capabilities for monitoring, predicting, and responding to potassium price fluctuations” sounds like another fine idea. Do you really believe no government employee has thought of this idea? Again, monitoring and predicting potassium price fluctuations is undoubtedly occurring. Responding to potassium price fluctuations sounds a lot like a national security issue, at least in the country of my birth, where contributing to the misery of people in other countries is a life-long pursuit of many government employees.

Third, “helping farmers maintain sufficient soil potassium levels with further research about the yield implications of limited potassium in various crops and soils” sounds like a typical recommendation from a researcher. This was the kind of thing I’d say when I was working within a broken system. More research is always needed, at least from the perspective of researchers constantly seeking more research funds.

Fourth, “evaluating the environmental effects of potash mining and developing sustainable application practices” is fine. Never mind that we should constantly be evaluating environmental effects of everything we do. Never mind that sustainability is a myth. And then, see my response to item three.

Fifth, “developing a global circular potassium economy that minimizes the use and maximizes the reuse and recycling of the nutrient” would be a great idea. It’ll never happen, of course. There’s too much money involved for the few billionaires in the current version of disaster capitation. These folks, and the governments they influence, are not interested in a durable future. Rather, they are interested in privileges underlain by money and power.

Sixth and finally, “increasing intergovernmental cooperation through the UN and other agencies to develop global policy coordination akin to what’s been developed for nitrogen” is yet another fine idea. I suspect there’s a reason it hasn’t already been applied. I suspect that reason has to do with power underlain by privilege underlain by money.

Our societal inability to focus on the needs of the many instead of the privileges of a few is on display every day. Consider a couple of headlines from 19 February 2024. From the BBC we have Farmers’ protest: Death at Punjab border denied by police. Here’s the lede: “A protester has died as farmers attempted to resume their march on India’s capital after four rounds of talks with the federal government failed to end the deadlock.” The story is summarized with a single sentence comprising the fifth paragraph: “The farmers – who are demanding assured prices for their crops – have been clashing with police, who are trying to block them from reaching Delhi.”

The second headline comes from Reuters: Tractors roll into downtown Prague as Czech farmers join protests. This story is summed up in the lede: “Hundreds of Czech farmers drove their tractors into downtown Prague … disrupting traffic outside the Agriculture Ministry, as they joined protests against high energy costs, stifling bureaucracy and the European Union’s Green Deal. The following paragraph indicates the scope of this issue: “Farmers across Europe have taken to the streets this year, including in Poland, France, Germany, Spain and Italy, to fight low prices and high costs, cheap imports and EU climate change constraints.”

Every civilization requires the ability to grow, store, and distribute grains at scale. Working against the people who grow food, as opposed to working with them, probably isn’t the swiftest idea.

I’m reminded of a line I heard when I was a kid. It addresses the motto of government workers: “If it ain’t broke, fix it until it is.”