Science Snippets: We Are Pissing Away Our Future

Draft script:

As I learned a long time ago, relatively few nutrients are required for human survival. At the base of the nutrients pyramid lie three elements plants extract from air and water: carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. One step up the four-step pyramid, we find nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. These primary macronutrients are found in the soil, although they often require supplementation in the form of fertilizers or organic materials such as compost. In every case, composting is the preferred strategy for those of us interested in the long view. However, this requires individuals to remain connected to the land, actively involved in the process of growing their own food. More about that shortly. Secondary macronutrients are a step further up the pyramid, and include sulfur, calcium, and magnesium. Eight micronutrients are found atop the pyramid.

Since World War II ended, people in the country of my birth have been largely discouraged from maintaining any reasonable connection to the land. The socioeconomic system encourages specialization in a discipline, preferably one that leads to a large salary. As my Dad said to me during our last substantive conversation, “I never thought one of my kids would be reduced to milking a goat.” He was merely reflecting the dominant culture and its perspective on growing food and the people who are doing the growing.

Among the many consequences of this specialist perspective is the inability of most people to name any nutrients, much less identify their importance. We have become particularly skilled at using technology and quite unskilled at understanding it. Questioning whether and how to use various technologies in our daily lives is a rare pursuit, although children are using various devices that employ Artificial Intelligence nearly from birth. When did you last engage in serious conversation about organically growing food?

From the peer-reviewed Environmental Science & Technology Letters comes an open-access article titled Global-to-Local Dependencies in Phosphorus Mass Flows and Markets: Pathways to Improving System Resiliency in Response to Exogenous Shocks. Written by 13 scholars, the paper was published on 7 May 2024.

The Abstract of this article begins with an overview of the importance of phosphorus and its susceptibility to disruptions in supply: “Uneven global distribution of phosphate rock deposits and the supply chains to transport phosphorus make phosphorus fertilizers vulnerable to exogenous shocks, including commodity market shocks; extreme weather events or natural disasters; and geopolitical instability, such as trade disputes, disruption of shipping routes, and war. Understanding bidirectional risk transmission (global-to-local and local-to-global) in phosphorus supply and consumption chains is thus essential.”

The Abstract continues and concludes with the dangerous consequences likely to result from ignoring the importance of phosphorus in global food production: “Ignoring phosphorus system interdependencies and associated risks could have major impacts on critical infrastructure operations and increase the vulnerability of global food systems. We highlight recent unanticipated events and cascading effects that have impacted phosphorus markets globally. We discuss the need to account for exogenous shocks in local assessments of phosphorus flows, policies, and infrastructure design choices. We also provide examples of how accounting for undervalued global risks to the phosphorus industry can hasten the transition to a sustainable phosphorus future. For example, leveraging internal phosphorus recycling loops, improving plant phosphorus use efficiency, and utilizing legacy soil phosphorus all enhance system resiliency in the face of exogenous shocks and long-term anticipated threats. Strategies applied at the local level, which are embedded within national and global policy systems, can have global-scale impacts in derisking the phosphorus supply chain.”

The peer-reviewed paper begins with a topic heading: “1. Phosphorus Is an Essential, but Geographically Limited, Nonrenewable Resource.” The section begins with this terrifying information: “Phosphorus is an essential plant nutrient underpinning the global food system. Most inorganic phosphorus fertilizers are sourced from a limited number of phosphate rock reserves globally, with approximately 86% of phosphorus rock reserves concentrated in just six countries: Morocco (68%); China (5%); Egypt (4%); and Algeria, Tunisia, and Russia (3% each).”

I mentioned the importance of Morocco earlier in this space, with an emphasis on Morocco’s crop failures. Here we are, a few months later, with a reminder that Morocco is home to more than two-thirds of the world’s phosphorous rock reserves. If you are interested in the future consumption of food, then Morocco matters to you.

Not only does Morocco matter to you, but so does phosphorous. Unfortunately, phosphorous production and availability are being affected by climate change. As you know, Earth is amid abrupt, irreversible climate change. The peer-reviewed paper mentions two recent examples of climate change-driven weather events: Hurricane Ida and the Texas Freeze, both of which occurred in 2021. Citing other peer-reviewed papers, the paper in Environmental Science & Technology Letters finds that “climate change has the potential to dramatically compound P[hosphorous] supply risks by impacting several critical infrastructure nodes.”

The peer-reviewed, open-access paper in Environmental Science & Technology Letters concludes with a set of recommendations that fall under the category “Pathways to Enhance P[hosphorous] Resilience in Response to Exogenous Shocks.” Climate change is mentioned. However, abrupt, irreversible climate change is not mentioned. It’s almost as if none of the 13 authors of this peer-reviewed paper are aware that Earth is amid abrupt, irreversible climate change. Color me shocked.

As an aside, I must mention that the availability of phosphorous for growing food need not be limited. After all, we urinate vast amounts of phosphorous every day. We flush it away, our personal distaste overwhelming rational thought. In short, we are pissing away our ability to feed ourselves.