Science Snippets: NASA Can't Explain the Alarming Surge in Global Heat. Really?

Draft script:

“The world has been getting hotter for decades but a sudden and extraordinary surge in heat has sent the climate deeper into uncharted territory – and scientists are still trying to figure out why.” That’s the lede at Science Alert in an article published 20 December 2024. The article is headlined Even NASA Can’t Explain the Alarming Surge in Global Heat We’re Seeing. NASA is the acronym for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded, based on peer-reviewed evidence, that Earth is amid the most rapid change in planetary history. That was on 8 October 2018 with the IPCC report Global Warming of 1.5°. More than six years after the IPCC concluded Earth is amid the most abrupt change in planetary history, the folks at “NASA can’t explain the alarming surge in global heat we’re seeing.” Here’s an idea: Perhaps the people at NASA could read some peer-reviewed papers. Barring that wicked duty, perhaps the government employees at NASA could read the reports issued by the IPCC that collate and summarize abundant peer-reviewed evidence.

Within NASA, the primary department responsible for tracking and reporting climate change is the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Famously directed by Professor James E. Hansen as he became well-known for his research on anthropogenic climate change, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies is currently directed by Gavin Schmidt. In November 2024, Schmidt was quoted in the paper at Science Alert: “Warming in 2023 was head-and-shoulders above any other year, and 2024 will be as well. I wish I knew why, but I don’t. We’re still in the process of assessing what happened and if we are seeing a shift in how the climate system operates.”

Again, perhaps the folks at NASA—up to and including the director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies—could read the peer-reviewed literature. Barring that challenging task, perhaps the folks at NASA could read the summaries provided by the IPCC. I would think this duty would be high on Gavin Schmidt’s list of priorities. After all, he is the director of the organization charged with keeping track of anthropogenic climate change. His ignorance of anthropogenic climate change, including why Earth is rapidly warming, is astonishing. To claim that “we’re still in the process of assessing what happened and if we are seeing a shift in how the climate system operates” ignores abundant peer-reviewed evidence summarized more than six years ago by the IPCC. The literature cited by the IPCC in Global Warming of 1.5° includes a book published in 2015 and titled Earth’s Climate Evolution. Published by John Wiley & Sons, the book relies on abundant peer-reviewed research to conclude that, as reported in the IPCC report Global Warming of 1.5°, “global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth System trajectory in the past.” A decade later, Gavin Schmidt claims NASA is “still in the process of assessing what happened and if we are seeing a shift in how the climate system operates.”

Here’s a hint: We are definitely “seeing a shift in how the climate system operates.” Those few of us paying attention are not only “seeing a shift in how the climate system operates.” We are also aware that human activities are driving this rapid change. Considering our collective, human actions, this cannot be a surprise to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention.

Human activities, notably including the stunning increase in carbon emissions during the last several decades, have been linked to the ongoing rapid rise in planetary temperature. This is not a surprise. It has not been a surprise for the last five decades. Stunningly, it is a surprise to the person charged with directing the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the primary governmental organization responsible for tracking and reporting climate change.

If not carbon emissions, then what could be driving the stunningly rapid rate of climate change? According to a peer-reviewed paper published in the renowned peer-reviewed journal Science, a reduction in albedo is responsible. A paper published 5 December 2024 in Science and titled Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo identified “a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap” between temperature rise and other factors driving the observed rise in global temperature. This low planetary albedo was particularly pronounced immediately following the onset of an El Niño Southern Oscillation event.

As I have reported frequently in this space, albedo is frequently ignored or downplayed in assessments of climate change. The research published in Science indicates the importance of including albedo in planetary climate change analyses. Specifically, it finds that “a record-low planetary albedo” is fundamental to understanding climate change. It demonstrates albedo’s importance in accurately determining humans’ collective role in warming the planet.

There are more than eight billion reasons for the alarming surge in global heating. Perhaps the endless wars waged by the country of my birth has something to do with that. After all, in supporting Israel, the U.S. has contributed to dropping more bombs on Gaza in the last 18 months than were dropped on Dresden, Hamburg, and London combined during World War Two.