Frequently Wrong, I Continue to Predict
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I have frequently erred with my predictions. However, I recognize that predictions are a fundamental part of the scientific process.
Inspired by people such as—and including—Carl Sagan, I continue to make predictions. I have become a science educator since leaving campus life in 2009, with a focus on the general public rather than that of my scientific colleagues.
My most notable misadventure was in 2012, when I incorrectly predicted Earth would experience an ice-free Arctic Ocean in 2016 plus or minus 3 years. I based this prediction on a peer-reviewed paper in the renowned Annual Review series. Specifically, the prediction was based on a paper by Wieslaw Maslowski and three other scholars that was published in the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences. Titled The Future of Arctic Sea Ice, it was initially published on 8 March 2012. The paper projected an ice-free Arctic Ocean in 2016+3 years. This event is especially noteworthy because, when it occurs, the rapid rate of environmental change will almost certainly cause the extinction of our species and all other species currently on Earth. The projection in this paper was based on only 11 years of data, with the final year showing considerably less snow and ice floating on the Arctic Ocean than previous years. As a result, this final datum significantly influenced the projection in the paper, thus leading to the projection of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in 2016+3 years.
Good news: Earth did not have an ice-free Arctic Ocean in 2016+3 years. Better news: The six-month prediction now used by the research team led by Maslowski recently reported that we will not have an ice-free Arctic Ocean this year.
Although there are other means by which we might be driven to extinction in the forthcoming few years, an ice-free Arctic Ocean is off the proverbial table. If you’re interested in bad news, please type Means of Extinction into the search box at guymcpherson dot com. Doing so will reveal several events that will lead to the extinction of Homo sapiens. Due to the rapid rate of environmental change in our wake, the extinction of our species will undoubtedly lead to the loss of all life on Earth. Even if you hate our species, cheering for our demise indicates your desire to have Earth turned into a lifeless rock floating through space.
Ours is the only planet known with certainty to currently harbor life. Millions of species have occupied Earth. Nearly all have gone extinct. None have demonstrated the power of our own species, which includes the ability to drive all life on Earth to extinction. It will require the collective actions of our species to cause this undesirable event. Unfortunately, we have frequently demonstrated our ability to drive other species to extinction. I have little doubt that, at least collectively, we are capable of driving all life on Earth to extinction. Needless to say, I’m not a fan.
To me, Guy, your predictions are a means of providing information. Doesn't matter to me if you are "wrong" as I don't keep a scorecard. I just appreciate that you put in front of me information that allows me to make my own decisions. Thanks for all you do.
I've lost a few yacht races because, after looking at the forecast, I chose too small a head sail, on another occasion, racing In the Coastal Classic, NZ's premier local yacht race, I smashed some aft rigging because I had to much sail up and overloaded it, I was wrong in the first instance because I followed the 'Precautionary Principle', I was wrong in the second instance because I didn't.
The first error cost me a podium position, the second error cost a few grand. Had the mast come down the bill would have been $100k + potential danger to crew.
I was racing and skippering a 50 fifty-footer for a mate one time as he couldn't make the race and as I maneuvered the yacht out of the marina, one of the crew asked me, "What do you think it's blowing"? I replied 7 to 10 K.
He snapped back, no way, that's at least 25 knots steady, gusting 30/35.
I laughed back and said "$7 to $10K of damage to our mates' yacht and bank balance."
To be successful as a racing yachtsman, you have to push the yacht and crew to the brink and no further, it's an incredibly fine line.
To be successful as a delivery skipper you have to break nothing, there is no repair shop in the middle of the ocean. My mission statement, to owners who hired me to deliver their yachts was: "My aim will be to give your yacht back in better shape than it was at the beginning of the delivery". Generally, I was successful and it led to me getting more work.
The mistakes Guy and I have made were all based on assessments of peer reviewed literature, that didn't pan out, TF!
People accuse us of 'Cherry Picking' data, so, should we ignore worst case scenarios?
Look where that's got us!
Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
The stakes are so high in this 'race to Armageddon', that the precautionary principle should be mandatory but that would be logical and common sense and both are these days, in terminally short supply.